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We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes;…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yonghan Jung , Bogyeong Kang

Assessing the causal effects of interventions on ordinal outcomes is an important objective of many educational and behavioral studies. Under the potential outcomes framework, we can define causal effects as comparisons between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-06 Jiannan Lu , Peng Ding , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to evaluate the causal effect of treatment in a randomized trial where a nonterminal event may be censored by a terminal event, but not vice versa (i.e., semi-competing risks). Based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-23 Yanxun Xu , Daniel Scharfstein , Peter Müller , Michael Daniels

Large observational data are increasingly available in disciplines such as health, economic and social sciences, where researchers are interested in causal questions rather than prediction. In this paper, we examine the problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-24 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

We propose a doubly robust approach to characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity in observational studies. We develop a frequentist inferential procedure that utilizes posterior distributions for both the propensity score and outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-21 Heejun Shin , Joseph Antonelli

We examine interval estimation of the effect of a treatment T on an outcome Y given the existence of an unobserved confounder U. Using H\"older's inequality, we derive a set of bounds on the confounding bias |E[Y|T=t]-E[Y|do(T=t)]| based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Henry Pfister , Fan Li , Lawrence Carin

In settings where interference between units is possible, we define the prevalence of indirect effects to be the number of units who are affected by the treatment of others. This quantity does not fully identify an indirect effect, but may…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-18 David Choi

We discuss the identifiability of causal estimands for generalizability and transportability analyses, both under perfect and imperfect adherence to treatment assignment. We consider a setting where the trial data contain information on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Issa J. Dahabreh , Sarah E. Robertson , Miguel A. Hernán

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

We propose a method for estimation and inference for bounds for heterogeneous causal effect parameters in general sample selection models where the treatment can affect whether an outcome is observed and no exclusion restrictions are…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-29 Phillip Heiler

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding under incremental propensity score interventions remains relatively underdeveloped. Incremental interventions define stochastic treatment regimes by multiplying the odds of treatment, offering…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Shuying Shen , Valerio Bacak , Edward H. Kennedy

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

When studying treatment effects in multilevel studies, investigators commonly use (semi-)parametric estimators, which make strong parametric assumptions about the outcome, the treatment, and/or the correlation structure between study units…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

We study treatment-effect estimation using panel data. The treatment may be non-binary, non-absorbing, and the outcome may be affected by treatment lags. We make a parallel-trends assumption, and propose event-study estimators of the effect…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-13 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

We give an approach for characterizing interference by lower bounding the number of units whose outcome depends on selected groups of treated individuals, such as depending on the treatment of others, or others who are at least a certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 David Choi

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

We focus on causal inference for longitudinal treatments, where units are assigned to treatments at multiple time points, aiming to assess the effect of different treatment sequences on an outcome observed at a final point. A common…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-14 Federico Ricciardi , Alessandra Mattei , Fabrizia Mealli

Empirical researchers routinely invoke the no-interference or \textit{individualistic treatment response} (ITR) assumption to identify causal effects in observational studies, despite concerns that interference across units may arise in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-27 Julius Owusu , Monika Avila Márquez