Related papers: Similarity Is Not Enough: Tipping Points of Ebola …
A model for epidemics on an adaptive network is considered. Nodes follow an SIRS (susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptible) pattern. Connections are rewired to break links from non-infected nodes to infected nodes and are reformed to…
In this paper, we investigate the epidemic spreading for SIR model in weighted scale-free networks with nonlinear infectivity, where the transmission rate in our analytical model is weighted. Concretely, we introduce the infectivity…
Seasonal influenza kills hundreds of thousands every year, with multiple constantly-changing strains in circulation at any given time. A high mutation rate enables the influenza virus to evade recognition by the human immune system,…
Dynamic models - often deterministic in nature - were used to estimate the basic reproductive number, R_0, of the 2014-5 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic outbreak in West Africa. Estimates of R_0 were then used to project the likelihood…
Viruses like influenza have long coevolved with host immune systems, gradually shaping the evolutionary trajectory of these pathogens. Host immune systems develop immunity against circulating strains, which in turn avoid extinction by…
Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…
Media around the world is disseminated at the national level as well as at the local level. While the capacity of media to shape preferences and behavior has been widely recognized, less is known about the differential impacts of local…
Motivated by observations in sequence data of herpesviruses, we introduce a multi-locus model for the joint evolution of different genotypes in a virus population that is distributed across a population of hosts. In the model, virus…
After birth setting up an effective immune system is a major challenge for all living organisms. In this paper we show that this process can be explored by using the age-specific infant death rate as a kind of sensor. This is made possible…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to a significant emergence of highly mutated forms of viruses with a great ability to adapt to the human host. Some mutations resulted in changes in the amino acid sequences of viral proteins, including the…
The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the lives of people globally. In the past year many researchers have proposed different models and approaches to explore in what ways the spread of the disease could be mitigated. One of the models that…
Influenza viruses undergo continual antigenic evolution allowing mutant viruses to evade host immunity acquired to previous virus strains. Antigenic phenotype is often assessed through pairwise measurement of cross-reactivity between…
We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior…
Although lessons have been learned from previous severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreaks, the rapid evolution of the viruses means that future outbreaks of a much larger scale are…
A method for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission is developed for a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the…
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…
To investigate the combined effects of drug resistance, seasonality and vector-bias, we formulate a periodic two-strain reaction-diffusion model. It is a competitive system for resistant and sensitive strains, but the single-strain…
We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate…
This study introduces the Supervised Magnitude-Altitude Scoring (SMAS) methodology, a machine learning-based approach, for analyzing gene expression data obtained from nonhuman primates (NHPs) infected with Ebola virus (EBOV). We utilize a…
Weibull distribution is widely used in modelling health data. However, its lack of sufficient tail flexibility often results in poor fit in extreme events. We proposed another three-parameter extension of the Weibull distribution with…