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Most Recommender Systems (RecSys) do not provide an indication of confidence in their decisions. Therefore, they do not distinguish between recommendations of which they are certain, and those where they are not. Existing confidence methods…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Norman Knyazev , Harrie Oosterhuis

In this paper, we introduce a new probability distribution, the Lasso distribution. We derive several fundamental properties of the distribution, including closed-form expressions for its moments and moment-generating function.…

Beta regression models are a suitable choice for continuous response variables on the unity interval. Random effects add further flexibility to the models and accommodate data structures such as hierarchical, repeated measures and…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-25 Wagner H. Bonat , Paulo J. Ribeiro , Walmes Marque Zeviani

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 G. D'Agostini , M. Raso

In statistical inference, uncertainty is unknown and all models are wrong. That is to say, a person who makes a statistical model and a prior distribution is simultaneously aware that both are fictional candidates. To study such cases,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-13 Sumio Watanabe

If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-05 Huw Llewelyn

Pareto distributions are widely used models in economics, finance and actuarial sciences. As a result, a number of goodness-of-fit tests have been proposed for these distributions in the literature. We provide an overview of the existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-21 L. Ndwandwe , J. S. Allison , L. Santana , I. J. H. Visagie

Building on the work of Arizmendi and Celestino (2021), we derive the $*$-distributions of polynomials in monotone independent and infinitesimally monotone independent elements. For non-zero complex numbers $\alpha$ and $\beta$, we derive…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Marwa Banna , Pei-Lun Tseng

A/B testing refers to the task of determining the best option among two alternatives that yield random outcomes. We provide distribution-dependent lower bounds for the performance of A/B testing that improve over the results currently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-25 Emilie Kaufmann , Olivier Cappé , Aurélien Garivier

The aim of this article is to determine a new six-parameter Beta Weibull distribution and its various associated functions, namely the cumulative distribution, survival, probability density and hazard functions. Next, we determine the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Didier Alain Njamen Njomen , Fidel Djongreba Ndikwa

We propose a new $L^2$-type goodness-of-fit test for the family of beta distributions based on a conditional moment characterisation. The asymptotic null distribution is identified, and since it depends on the underlying parameters, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-30 Bruno Ebner , Shawn C. Liebenberg

Specimens are collected from $N$ different sources. Each specimen has probability $p$ of being contaminated, independently of the other specimens. We assume group testing is applicable, namely one can take small portions from several…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Vassilis G. Papanicolaou

For delta operator $aD-bD^{p+1}$ we find the corresponding polynomial sequence of binomial type and relations with Fuss numbers. In the case $D-\frac{1}{2}D^2$ we show that the corresponding Bessel-Carlitz polynomials are moments of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-04 Wojciech Młotkowski , Anna Romanowicz

We are concerned with obtaining well-calibrated output distributions from regression models. Such distributions allow us to quantify the uncertainty that the model has regarding the predicted target value. We introduce the novel concept of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-16 Hao Song , Tom Diethe , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

We propose a two-parameter bounded probability distribution called the extended power distribution. This distribution on $(0, 1)$ is similar to the beta distribution, however there are some advantages which we explore. We define the moments…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-09 Chibueze E. Ogbonnaya , Simon P. Preston , Andrew T. A. Wood

Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Oscar Oelrich , Shutong Ding , Måns Magnusson , Aki Vehtari , Mattias Villani

The belief network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independences in a joint probability distribution. The methods, which perform probabilistic inference in belief networks, often treat the conditional probabilities…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Richard E. Neapolitan , James Kenevan

We examine the distribution and popularity of different parameters (such as the number of descents, runs, valleys, peaks, right-to-left minima, and more) on the sets of increasing and flattened permutations. For each parameter, we provide…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2024-10-22 Jean-Luc Baril , José L. Ramírez

The main aim of this article is to characterize and investigate the three parameter exponentiated exponential Poisson probability distribution ${\rm EEP}(\alpha, \beta, \lambda)$ by giving explicit closed form expressions for its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Tibor K Pogány

In this work, we present a method to generate probability distributions and classes of probability distributions, which broadens a process of probability distribution construction. In this method, distribution classes are built from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-16 Cícero Carlos Ramos de Brito , Leandro Chaves Rêgo , Wilson Rosa de Oliveira