Related papers: Estimation of Several Political Action Effects of …

We propose a computational framework for modeling opinion dynamics in electoral competitions that combines two realistic features: voter memory and exogenous shocks. The population is represented by a fully-connected network of agents, each…

This paper measures the effects of temperature and precipitation shocks on Mexican inflation using a regional panel. To measure the long-term inflationary effects of climate shocks, we estimate a panel autoregressive distributed lag model…

Following a Geometrical Brownian Motion extension into an Irrational Fractional Brownian Motion model, we re-examine agent behaviour reacting to time dependent news on the log-returns thereby modifying a financial market evolution. We…

This paper describes asset price and return disturbances as result of relations between transactions and multiple kinds of expectations. We show that disturbances of expectations can cause fluctuations of trade volume, price and return. We…

Standard economic theory assumes that agents in markets behave rationally. However, the observation of extremely large fluctuations in the price of financial assets that are not correlated to changes in their fundamental value, as well as…

We estimate the short-run effects of weather-related disasters on local economic activity and cross-border spillovers that operate through economic linkages between U.S. states. To this end, we use emergency declarations triggered by…

This paper addresses the problem of testing for persistence in the effects of the shocks affecting the prices of renewable commodities, which have potential implications on stabilization policies and economic forecasting, among other areas.…

This paper studies the impact of wind generation on market prices and system costs in the UK between 2013 and 2014. The wider effects and implications of wind generation is of direct relevance and importance to policy makers, as well as the…

We investigate how crises alter societies by analyzing the timing and channels of change using a longitudinal multi-wave survey of a representative sample of Americans throughout 2020. This methodology allows us to overcome some of the…

This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that…

We report the results of surveys we conducted in the US and Israel in 2020, a time when many prices increased following the spread of the pandemic. To assess respondents perceptions of price increases, we focus on goods whose prices have…

Statistical properties of an order book and the effect they have on price dynamics were studied using the high-frequency NASDAQ Level II data. It was observed that the size distribution of marketable orders (transaction sizes) has power law…

Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that…

We investigate the effects of stockholding on households' attention to the macroeconomy. Households' attentiveness is measured by their accuracy of inflation expectations and perceptions. Relative to non-stockholders, stockholders produce…

The correct understanding of commodity price dynamics can bring relevant improvements in terms of policy formulation both for developing and developed countries. Agricultural, metal and energy commodity prices might depend on each other:…

This paper takes a fresh look at the economic theory that is motivation for pricing models, such as critical peak pricing (CPP), or surge pricing, and the demand response models advocated by policy makers and in the power systems…

Crude oil, a critical component of the global economy, has its prices influenced by various factors such as economic trends, political events, and natural disasters. Traditional prediction methods based on historical data have their limits…

The Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes the deployment of clean electricity, hydrogen production, and carbon capture and storage, which could enable additional actions by other federal, state, and local policymakers to reduce emissions.…

While the long-ranged correlation of market orders and their impact on prices has been relatively well studied in the literature, the corresponding studies of limit orders and cancellations are scarce. We provide here an empirical study of…

A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own…