Related papers: Estimation of Several Political Action Effects of …
For a variety of inter-related cultural, organizational, and political reasons, progress in climate science and the actual solution of scientific problems in this field have moved at a much slower rate than would normally be possible. Not…
The influence of the past price behaviour on the realized volatility is investigated in the present article. The results show that trending (drifting) prices lead to increased (decreased) realized volatility. This ``volatility induced by…
In this paper we study the impact of news media and public surveys on the electoral campaigns for political competitions. We present an agent-based model that addresses the effective influence of surveys in orienting the opinions of voters…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
The challenge of understanding the collective behaviors of social systems can benefit from methods and concepts from physics [1-6], not because humans are similar to electrons, but because certain large-scale behaviors can be understood…
The increasing vulnerability of power systems has heightened the need for operating reserves to manage contingencies such as generator outages, line failures, and sudden load variations. Unlike energy costs, driven by consumer demand,…
Although recent studies have shown that electricity systems with shares of wind and solar above 80% can be affordable, economists have raised concerns about market integration. Correlated generation from variable renewable sources depresses…
The interactions of the natural gas (NG) network and the electricity system are increased by using gas-fired generation units, which use NG to produce electricity. There are various uncertainty sources such as the forced outage of…
We develop a simple theoretic game a model to analyze the relationship between electoral sys tems and governments' choice in trade policies. We show that existence of international pressure or foreign lobby changes a government's final…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports indicate that the global mean temperature is about one-degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, that this increase is anthropogenic, and that there is a causal relationship…
Increased penetration of wind energy will make electricity market prices more volatile. As a result, market participants will bear increased financial risks, which impact investment decisions and in turn, makes it harder to achieve…
Economic hardships significantly affect public perception and voting intentions in general elections. The primary focus of my study is to capture the degree of influence that individual economic hardships have on their voting. I utilize the…
Stock prices are observed to be random walks in time despite a strong, long term memory in the signs of trades (buys or sells). Lillo and Farmer have recently suggested that these correlations are compensated by opposite long ranged…
Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical…
The economic impacts of climate change are highly uncertain. Two of the most important uncertainties are the sensitivity of the climate system and the so-called damage functions, which relate climate change to economic damages and benefits.…
We investigate the consequences of legal rulings on the conduct of monetary policy. Several unconventional monetary policy measures of the European Central Bank have come under scrutiny before national courts and the European Court of…
In this paper, we examine the biases that arise when firms run A/B tests on continuous parameters to estimate global treatment effects on performance metrics of interest; we particularly focus on price experiments to measure the price…
Political polarization can be beneficial to competing political parties. I study how electoral competition itself generates incentives to polarize voters, even when parties are ex ante identical and motivated purely by political power,…
Due to climate change, natural hazards that affect energy infrastructure will become more frequent in the future. However, to incorporate natural hazard risk into infrastructure investment decisions, we develop an approach to translate this…
I devise a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the short run with multi-category treatment effects and inverse probability weighting based on the potential outcome framework. This study's main contribution to…