Related papers: Mortality Models based on the Transform $\log(-\lo…
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…
This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during…
This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…
This paper extends the Lee-Carter model for single- and multi-populations to account for pandemic jump effects of vanishing kind, allowing for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of mortality rates during a pandemic,…
The current outbreak of COVID-19 has called renewed attention to the need for sound statistical analysis for monitoring mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess mortality has been suggested as the most appropriate indicator to…
In this article we investigate a state-space representation of the Lee-Carter model which is a benchmark stochastic mortality model for forecasting age-specific death rates. Existing relevant literature focuses mainly on mortality…
The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no…
We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…
Frailty and resilience models provide a way to introduce random effects in hazard and reversed hazard rate modeling by random variables, called frailty and resilience random variables, respectively, to account for unobserved or unexplained…
The first chapter concerns monotype population models. We first study general birth and death processes and we give non-explosion and extinction criteria, moment computations and a pathwise representation. We then show how different scales…
Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…
We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…
In this article, we use the illness-death model to present a mathematical framework for studying the compression of morbidity (COM) hypothesis. It turns out that questions about COM are completely determined by the transition rates in the…
Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…
The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…
This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in different contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the essential dynamics of survival analysis,…