Related papers: Mortality Models based on the Transform $\log(-\lo…
This study introduces an innovative methodology for mortality forecasting, which integrates signature-based methods within the functional data framework of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) model. This new approach, termed the Hyndman-Ullah with…
Consider a birth and death chain to model the number of types of a given virus. Each type gives birth to a new type at rate $\lambda$ and dies at rate 1. Each type is also assigned a fitness. When a death occurs either the least fit type…
The case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19 is difficult to estimate. One difficulty is due to ignoring or overestimating time delay between reporting and death. We claim that all of these cause large errors and artificial time dependence of…
We review recent progress on ancestral processes related to mutation-selection models, both in the deterministic and the stochastic setting. We mainly rely on two concepts, namely, the killed ancestral selection graph and the pruned…
Indirect standardization is widely used in disease mapping to control for confounding, but relies on restrictive assumptions that may bias estimates if violated. Using data on suicide-related emergency calls, this study highlights such…
Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established modelling and forecasting methods without obeying these…
Correlations between high life expectancy and low lifespan inequality are frequently observed. A recent article seeks to explain this phenomenon by proposing that a mortality improvement maps to life expectancy and relative lifespan…
In this paper, we first propose a new extended mixture model of residual lifetime distributions. We show that this model is suitable in modeling residual lifetime in some practical situations. Several closure properties of some well-known…
A new method called SurvLIME for explaining machine learning survival models is proposed. It can be viewed as an extension or modification of the well-known method LIME. The main idea behind the proposed method is to apply the Cox…
In mortality modelling, cohort effects are often taken into consideration as they add insights about variations in mortality across different generations. Statistically speaking, models such as the Renshaw-Haberman model may provide a…
We study the variable selection problem in survival analysis to identify the most important factors affecting survival time. Our method incorporates prior knowledge of mutual correlations among variables, represented through a graph. We…
Quantitative properties of stochastic systems are usually specified in logics that allow one to compare the measure of executions satisfying certain temporal properties with thresholds. The model checking problem for stochastic systems with…
Considered a pair of random lifetimes whose dependence is described by a Time Transformed Exponential model, we provide analytical expressions for the distribution of their sum. These expressions are obtained by using a representation of…
Survival analysis encompasses a broad range of methods for analyzing time-to-event data, with one key objective being the comparison of survival curves across groups. Traditional approaches for identifying clusters of survival curves often…
Many population genetic models have been developed for the purpose of inferring population size and growth rates from random samples of genetic data. We examine two popular approaches to this problem, the coalescent and the…
We examine birth--death processes with state dependent transition probabilities and at least one absorbing boundary. In evolution, this describes selection acting on two different types in a finite population where reproductive events occur…
We describe a percolation-type approach to modeling of the processes of aging and certain other properties of tissues analyzed as systems consisting of interacting cells. Tissues are considered as structures made of regular healthy,…
Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point…
This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…
Cells of the human body have nearly identical genome but exhibit very different phenotypes that allow them to carry out specific functions and react to changes in their surrounding environment. This division of labour is achieved by…