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In applied probability, the normal approximation is often used for the distribution of data with assumed additive structure. This tradition is based on the central limit theorem for sums of (independent) random variables. However, it is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Alexandra Dorofeeva , Victor Korolev , Alexander Zeifman

We study a random partial covering model on the $(d-1)$-dimensional unit sphere, where $N$ spherical caps are placed independently and uniformly at random, each covering a surface fraction of $1/N$. This model provides a continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Steven Hoehner , Christoph Thäle

Testing whether a variable of interest affects the outcome is one of the most fundamental problem in statistics and is often the main scientific question of interest. To tackle this problem, the conditional randomization test (CRT) is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-26 Dae Woong Ham , Jiaze Qiu

The standard central limit theorem with a Gaussian attractor for the sum of independent random variables may lose its validity in presence of strong correlations between the added random contributions. Here, we study this problem for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-06-14 Adrian A. Budini

The models surveyed include generalized P\'{o}lya urns, reinforced random walks, interacting urn models, and continuous reinforced processes. Emphasis is on methods and results, with sketches provided of some proofs. Applications are…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Robin Pemantle

Consider throwing $n$ balls at random into $m$ urns, each ball landing in urn $i$ with probability $p_i$. Let $S$ be the resulting number of singletons, i.e., urns containing just one ball. We give an error bound for the Kolmogorov distance…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-01-23 Mathew D. Penrose

Consider an urn filled with balls, each labeled with one of several possible collective decisions. Now, let a random voter draw two balls from the urn and pick her more preferred as the collective decision. Relabel the losing ball with the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-03-28 Florian Brandl , Felix Brandt

A functional central limit theorem is established for weighted occupancy processes of the Karlin model. The weighted occupancy processes take the form of, with $D_{n,j}$ denoting the number of urns with $j$-balls after the first $n$…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-22 Jaime Garza , Yizao Wang

P\'{o}lya urn is a stochastic process in which balls are randomly drawn from an urn of red and blue balls, and balls of the same color as the drawn balls are added. The probability of a ball of a certain color being drawn is equal to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-10 Shintaro Mori , Masato Hisakado , Kazuaki Nakayama

We consider interacting urns on a finite directed network, where both sampling and reinforcement processes depend on the nodes of the network. This extends previous research by incorporating node-dependent sampling and reinforcement. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Gursharn Kaur , Neeraja Sahasrabudhe

P\'olya urns are urns where at each unit of time a ball is drawn and replaced with some other balls according to its colour. We introduce a more general model: the replacement rule depends on the colour of the drawn ball and the value of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-04 Cyril Banderier , Philippe Marchal , Michael Wallner

We introduce a class of reinforcement models where, at each time step $t$, one first chooses a random subset $A_t$ of colours (independent of the past) from $n$ colours of balls, and then chooses a colour $i$ from this subset with…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-03 Remco van der Hofstad , Mark Holmes , Alexey Kuznetsov , Wioletta Ruszel

The Central Limit Theorem provides a foundation for inferential statistics and hypothesis testing. It describes how standardized statistics behave under repeated sampling from large populations. However, if the size of the sample (n)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Mike Crowhurst

Suppose $B_i:= B(p,r_i)$ are nested balls of radius $r_i$ about a point $p$ in a dynamical system $(T,X,\mu)$. The question of whether $T^i x\in B_i$ infinitely often (i. o.) for $\mu$ a.e.\ $x$ is often called the shrinking target problem.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Nicolai Haydn , Matthew Nicol , Sandro Vaienti , Licheng Zhang

This work is devoted to P\'olya-Young urns, a class of periodic P\'olya urns of importance in the analysis of Young tableaux. We provide several extension of the previous results of Banderier, Marchal and Wallner [Ann. Prob. (2020)] on…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-28 Markus Kuba

We study the joint asymptotics of forward and backward processes of numbers of non-empty urns in an infinite urn scheme. The probabilities of balls hitting the urns are assumed to satisfy the conditions of regular decrease. We prove weak…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-10 Mikhail Chebunin , Artyom Kovalevskii

Recently a new type of central limit theorem for belief functions was given in Epstein et al. [9]. In this paper, we generalize the central limit theorem in Epstein et al. [9] to accommodate general bounded random variables. These results…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-21 Xiaomin Shi

The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of strongly reinforced interacting urns with partial memory sharing. The reinforcement mechanism considered is as follows: draw at each step and for each urn a white or black ball…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-10 Mickaël Launay

An urn model of Diaconis and some generalizations are discussed. A convergence theorem is proved that implies for Diaconis' model that the empirical distribution of balls in the urn converges with probability one to the uniform…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 David Siegmund , Benjamin Yakir

Let $G$ be a finite Abelian group of order $d$. We consider an urn in which, initially, there are labeled balls that generate the group $G$. Choosing two balls from the urn with replacement, observe their labels, and perform a group…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-30 Li Yang , Jiang Hu , Zhidong Bai