Related papers: Hawkes processes in finance
Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…
We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…
An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…
We present a Hawkes modeling of the volatility surface's high-frequency dynamics and show how the Hawkes kernel coefficients govern the surface's skew and convexity. We provide simple sufficient conditions on the coefficients to ensure…
In this paper, we consider pricing of European options and spread options for Hawkes-based model for the limit order book. We introduce multivariate Hawkes process and the multivariable general compound Hawkes process. Exponential…
We study a linear price impact model including other liquidity takers, whose flow of orders either follows a Poisson or a Hawkes process. The optimal execution problem is solved explicitly in this context, and the closed-formula optimal…
In this paper, we introduce a suite of models for price-aware automated market making platforms willing to optimize their quotes. These models incorporate advanced price dynamics, including stochastic volatility, jumps, and microstructural…
This paper proposes a new approach for change point detection in multivariate Hawkes processes using Fr\'echet statistic of a network. The method splits the point process into overlapping windows, estimates kernel matrices in each window,…
This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…
We present a Hawkes model approach to foreign exchange market in which the high frequency price dynamics is affected by a self exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By…
This paper investigates optimal execution strategies in intraday energy markets through a mutually exciting Hawkes process model. Calibrated to data from the German intraday electricity market, the model effectively captures key empirical…
We define a new model using a Hawkes process as a subordinator in a standard Brownian motion. We demonstrate that this Hawkes subordinated Brownian motion or more succinctly, variance-Hawkes process can be fit to 2018 and 2019 natural gas…
We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…
We consider a population of $N$ interacting neurons, represented by a multivariate Hawkes process: the firing rate of each neuron depends on the history of the connected neurons. Contrary to the mean-field framework where the interaction…
The rapid growth of social media has been witnessed during recent years as a result of the prevalence of the internet. This trend brings an increasing interest in simulating social media which can provide valuable insights to both academic…
In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…
We introduce a model for limit order book of a certain security with two main features: First, both the limit orders and market orders for the given asset are allowed to appear and interact with each other. Second, the high frequency…
A key difficulty that arises from real event data is imprecision in the recording of event time-stamps. In many cases, retaining event times with a high precision is expensive due to the sheer volume of activity. Combined with practical…