Related papers: Hawkes processes in finance
High-frequency trading (HFT) represents a pivotal and intensely competitive domain within the financial markets. The velocity and accuracy of data processing exert a direct influence on profitability, underscoring the significance of this…
We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such…
This paper extends the existing fractional Hawkes process to better model mainshock-aftershock sequences of earthquakes. The fractional Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process model with temporal decay kernel being a Mittag-Leffler…
Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…
Hawkes processes were first introduced to obtain microscopic models for the rough volatility observed in asset prices. Scaling limits of such processes leads to the rough-Heston model that describes the macroscopic behavior. Blanc et al.…
We provide some theoretical extensions and a calibration protocol for our former dynamic optimal execution model. The Hawkes parameters and the propagator are estimated independently on financial data from stocks of the CAC40.…
Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or…
We propose a microstructural model for the order flow in financial markets that distinguishes between {\it core orders} and {\it reaction flow}, both modeled as Hawkes processes. This model has a natural scaling limit that reconciles a…
Human behavior drives a range of complex social, urban, and economic systems, yet understanding its structure and dynamics at the individual level remains an open question. From credit card transactions to communications data, human…
In this paper, we focus on a new generalization of multivariate general compound Hawkes process (MGCHP), which we referred to as the multivariate general compound point process (MGCPP). Namely, we applied a multivariate point process to…
For many financial applications, it is important to have reliable and tractable models for the behavior of assets and indexes, for example in risk evaluation. A successful approach is based on ARCH processes, which strike the right balance…
Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…
Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…
Hawkes (1971) introduced a powerful multivariate point process model of mutually exciting processes to explain causal structure in data. In this paper it is shown that the Granger causality structure of such processes is fully encoded in…
We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…
A new branch based on Markov processes is developing in the recent literature of financial time series modeling. In this paper, an Indexed Markov Chain has been used to model high frequency price returns of quoted firms. The peculiarity of…
Properties of strong mixing have been established for the stationary linear Hawkes process in the univariate case, and can serve as a basis for statistical applications. In this paper, we provide the technical arguments needed to extend the…
In the last five years, the financial industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and machine learning. In this article, we explore two methods that have undergone rapid development in recent years: Gaussian processes and…
The process algebra HYPE was recently proposed as a fine-grained modelling approach for capturing the behaviour of hybrid systems. In the original proposal, each flow or influence affecting a variable is modelled separately and the overall…
The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…