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Particle filters are applicable to a wide range of nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models and have already been applied to a variety of problems. However, there is a problem in the calculation of smoothed distributions, where particles…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-16 G. Kitagawa

Particle smoothers are widely used algorithms allowing to approximate the smoothing distribution in hidden Markov models. Existing algorithms often suffer from slow computational time or degeneracy. We propose in this paper a way to improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-28 Cyrille Dubarry , Randal Douc

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Jarrad Courts , Adrian Wills , Thomas B. Schön

In state space models, smoothing refers to the task of estimating a latent stochastic process given noisy measurements related to the process. We propose an unbiased estimator of smoothing expectations. The lack-of-bias property has…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-07 Pierre E. Jacob , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Twisted particle filters are a class of sequential Monte Carlo methods recently introduced by Whiteley and Lee to improve the efficiency of marginal likelihood estimation in state-space models. The purpose of this article is to extend the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-30 Juha Ala-Luhtala , Nick Whiteley , Kari Heine , Robert Piche

State-space models provide an important body of techniques for analyzing time-series, but their use requires estimating unobserved states. The optimal estimate of the state is its conditional expectation given the observation histories, and…

Implicit particle filtering is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assim- ilation, designed to keep the number of particles manageable by focussing attention on regions of large probability. These regions are found by min- imizing, for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-30 Matthias Morzfeld , Alexandre J. Chorin

We combine conditional state density construction with an extension of the Scenario Approach for stochastic Model Predictive Control to nonlinear systems to yield a novel particle-based formulation of stochastic nonlinear output-feedback…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Martin A. Sehr , Robert R. Bitmead

This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-06 Jimmy Olsson , Olivier Cappé , Randal Douc , Eric Moulines

A prevalent problem in general state-space models is the approximation of the smoothing distribution of a state, or a sequence of states, conditional on the observations from the past, the present, and the future. The aim of this paper is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-03 Randal Douc , Aurelien Garivier , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

Particle filters provide Monte Carlo approximations of intractable quantities such as point-wise evaluations of the likelihood in state space models. In many scenarios, the interest lies in the comparison of these quantities as some…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-19 Pierre E. Jacob , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Numerous fields of nonlinear physics, very different in nature, produce signals and images, that share the common feature of being essentially constituted of piecewise homogeneous phases. Analyzing signals and images from corresponding…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-06-17 Barbara Pascal , Nelly Pustelnik , Patrice Abry , Jean-Christophe Géminard , Valérie Vidal

Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework,…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-09 Mike Klaas , Nando de Freitas , Arnaud Doucet

Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-11 Guillaume Kon Kam King , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Matteo Ruggiero

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems.…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-14 Andreas Svensson , Thomas B. Schön , Fredrik Lindsten

Block-Oriented Nonlinear (BONL) models, particularly Wiener models, are widely used for their computational efficiency and practicality in modeling nonlinear behaviors in physical systems. Filtering and smoothing methods for Wiener systems,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-14 Angel L. Cedeño , Rodrigo A. González , Juan C. Agüero

For the purpose of maximum likelihood estimation of static parameters, we apply a kernel smoother to the particles in the standard SIR filter for non-linear state space models with additive Gaussian observation noise. This reduces the Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-07 Tore Selland Kleppe , Hans Julius Skaug

This paper presents a new filter for state-space models based on Bellman's dynamic-programming principle, allowing for nonlinearity, non-Gaussianity and degeneracy in the observation and/or state-transition equations. The resulting Bellman…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Rutger-Jan Lange

The particle filter is one of the most successful methods for state inference and identification of general non-linear and non-Gaussian models. However, standard particle filters suffer from degeneracy of the particle weights, in particular…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-27 Anna Wigren , Lawrence Murray , Fredrik Lindsten

In this paper, we propose a meshfree approximation method for the implicit filter developed in [2], which is a novel numerical algorithm for nonlinear filtering problems. The implicit filter approximates conditional distributions in the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-08-05 Feng Bao , Yanzhao Cao , Clayton Webster , Guannan Zhang