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We establish a large deviation principle (LDP) for probability graphons, which are symmetric functions from the unit square into the space of probability measures. This notion extends classical graphons and provides a flexible framework for…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Pierfrancesco Dionigi , Giulio Zucal

We compute the logarithmic asymptotics of the non-existence probability (and more generally the lower-tail probability) for a wide variety of combinatorial problems for a range of parameters in the `critical regime' between the regime…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Matthew Jenssen , Will Perkins , Aditya Potukuchi , Michael Simkin

We study tail probabilities via some Gaussian approximations. Our results make refinements to large deviation theory. The proof builds on classical results by Bahadur and Rao. Binomial distributions and their tail probabilities are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-07 Laszlo Gyorfi , Peter Harremoes , Gabor Tusnady

Consider the linear nonhomogeneous fixed point equation R =_d sum_{i=1}^N C_i R_i + Q, where (Q,N,C_1,...,C_N) is a random vector with N in{0,1,2,3,...}U{infty}, {C_i}_{i=1}^N >= 0, P(|Q|>0) > 0, and {R_i}_{i=1}^N is a sequence of i.i.d.…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-19 Mariana Olvera-Cravioto

A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-09 Sergey Foss , Michael Scheutzow , Anton Tarasenko

The study of tail behaviour of SGD-induced processes has been attracting a lot of interest, due to offering strong guarantees with respect to individual runs of an algorithm. While many works provide high-probability guarantees, quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Aleksandar Armacki , Dragana Bajović , Dušan Jakovetić , Soummya Kar , Ali H. Sayed

Consider the random graph sampled uniformly from the set of all simple graphs with a given degree sequence. Under mild conditions on the degrees, we establish a Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for these random graphs, viewed as elements of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-25 Souvik Dhara , Subhabrata Sen

This work introduces the minimax Laplace transform method, a modification of the cumulant-based matrix Laplace transform method developed in "User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices" (arXiv:1004.4389v6) that yields both upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-22 Alex Gittens , Joel A. Tropp

Let $N$ be the number of copies of a small subgraph $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph $G \sim \mathcal{G}(n, p_n)$ where $p_n \to 0$ is chosen so that $\mathbb{E} N = c$, a constant. Results of Bollob\'as show that for regular graphs $H$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Mriganka Basu Roy Chowdhury

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

This paper studies the distributed optimization problem under the influence of heavy-tailed gradient noises. Here, a heavy-tailed noise means that the noise does not necessarily satisfy the bounded variance assumption. Instead, it satisfies…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-12 Chao Sun , Huiming Zhang , Bo Chen , Li Yu

We study the graph alignment problem over two independent Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs on $n$ vertices, with edge density $p$ falling into two regimes separated by the critical window around $p_c=\sqrt{\log n/n}$. Our result reveals an…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-27 Hang Du , Shuyang Gong , Rundong Huang

We analyze the \textit{Large Deviation Probability (LDP)} of linear factor models generated from non-identically distributed components with \textit{regularly-varying} tails, a large subclass of heavy tailed distributions. An efficient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Farzad Pourbabaee , Omid Shams Solari

A fundamental problem in analysis of complex systems is getting a reliable estimate of entropy of their probability distributions over the state space. This is difficult because unsampled states can contribute substantially to the entropy,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-07-19 Damián G. Hernández , Ahmed Roman , Ilya Nemenman

Let X_1,X_2,... be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and put S_n=X_1+...+X_n. Under some conditions on the positive sequence tau_n and the positive increasing sequence a_n, we give necessary and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Alexander R. Pruss

Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-11 Davide Lauria , Svetlozar T. Rachev , A. Alexandre Trindade

We develop a general procedure that finds recursions for statistics counting isomorphic copies of a graph $G_0$ in the common random graph models ${\cal G}(n,m)$ and ${\cal G}(n,p)$. Our results apply when the average degrees of the random…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2016-08-19 Dudley Stark , Nick Wormald

Consider the continuous greedy paths model: given a $d$-dimensional Poisson point process with positive marks interpreted as masses, let $\mathrm P(\ell)$ denote the maximum mass gathered by a path of length $\ell$ starting from the origin.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-04 Julien Verges

For every fixed graph $H$ and every fixed $0 < \alpha < 1$, we show that if a graph $G$ has the property that all subsets of size $\alpha n$ contain the ``correct'' number of copies of $H$ one would expect to find in the random graph…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2008-04-07 Raphael Yuster

Let $G$ be a uniformly chosen simple (labelled) random graph with given degree sequence $\boldsymbol{d}$ and let $X,Y,L$ be edge-disjoint graphs on the same vertex set as $G$. We investigate the probability that $X \subseteq G$ and that $G…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-10-29 John Larkin , Brendan D. McKay , Fang Tian
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