Related papers: An early warning indicator for atmospheric blockin…
Predictability of flow is examined in a barotropic vorticity model that admits low frequency regime transitions between zonal and dipolar states. Such transitions in the model were first studied by Bouchet and Simonnet (2009) and are…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…
This study delves into the predictability of atmospheric blocking, zonal, and transition patterns utilizing a simplified coupled model. Initially, we comprehensively scrutinize the model's responses to environmental parameters like solar…
Macroscopic features of dynamical systems such as almost-invariant sets and coherent sets provide crucial high-level information on how the dynamics organises phase space. We introduce a method to identify time-parameterised families of…
The low-frequency variability of the mid-latitude atmosphere involves complex nonlinear and chaotic dynamical processes posing predictability challenges. It is characterized by sporadically recurring, often long-lived patterns of…
The transfer operator associated to a flow (continuous time dynamical system) is a one-parameter operator semigroup. We consider the operator-valued Laplace transform of this one-parameter semigroup. Estimates on the Laplace transform have…
The susceptibility of millimeter-wave (mmWave) signals to physical blockage and abrupt signal strength variations presents a challenge to reliable 5G communication. This work proposes and examines the feasibility of utilizing…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
A variety of real world and experimental systems can display a drastic regime shift, as the evolution in one its paramaters crosses a threshold value. Assimilation of such a transition with a bifurcation has allowed to identify so called…
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…
Understanding the link between urban planning and commuting flows is crucial for guiding urban development and policymaking. This research, bridging computer science and urban studies, addresses the challenge of integrating these fields…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
Large-scale foundation models for scientific machine learning adapt to physical settings unseen during training, such as zero-shot transfer between turbulent scales. This phenomenon, in-context learning, challenges conventional…
Sheared incompressible flows are usually considered non-dispersive media. As a consequence, the frequency evolution in transients has received much less attention than the wave energy density or growth factor. By carrying out a large number…
The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…
Drawing upon the bursting mechanism in slow-fast systems, we propose indicators for the prediction of such rare extreme events which do not require a priori known slow and fast coordinates. The indicators are associated with functionals…
Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data is essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, and engineering…
The use of critical slowing down as an early warning indicator for regime switching in observations from stochastic environments and noisy dynamical models has been widely studied and implemented in recent years. Some systems, however, have…