Related papers: An early warning indicator for atmospheric blockin…
We consider a system of two linear and linearly coupled oscillators with ideal impact constraints. Primary resonant energy exchange is investigated by analysis of the slow-flow using the action-angle (AA) formalism. Exact inversion of the…
Warning signs for tipping points (or critical transitions) have been very actively studied. Although the theory has been applied successfully in models and in experiments for many complex systems such as for tipping in climate systems,…
We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…
Our previous experience building systems for middlebox chain composition and scaling in software-defined networks has revealed that existing mechanisms of flow annotation commonly do not survive middlebox-traversals, or suffer from extreme…
Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial…
This paper proposes a novel framework to predict traffic flows' bandwidth ahead of time. Modern network management systems share a common issue: the network situation evolves between the moment the decision is made and the moment when…
We consider a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic ocean model where the upper layer is forced by a steady Kolmogorov wind stress in a periodic channel domain, which allows to mathematically study the nonlinear development of the resulting flow. The…
Most car-following models show a transition from laminar to ``congested'' flow and vice versa. Deterministic models often have a density range where a disturbance needs a sufficiently large critical amplitude to move the flow from the…
Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…
We propose a general and experimentally accessible framework to quantify transition timing in discrete quantum systems via the time-of-flow (TF) distribution. Defined from the rate of population change in a target state, the TF distribution…
A combination of methods originating from non-stationary timeseries analysis is applied to two datasets of near surface turbulence in order to gain insights on the non-stationary enhancement mechanism of intermittent turbulence in the…
One of the most relevant weather regimes in the mid-latitudes atmosphere is the persistent deviation from the approximately zonally symmetric jet to the emergence of blocking patterns. Such configurations are usually connected to…
Under-ice blooms in the Arctic can develop rapidly under conditions where conventional early warning signals based on critical slowing down fail due to strong noise or limited observational records. We analyze noise-induced transitions in a…
We demonstrate that turbulent zonal jets, analogous to Jovian ones, which are quasi-stationary, are actually metastable. After extremely long times, they randomly switch to new configurations with a different number of jets. The genericity…
The ability to predict traffic flow over time for crowded areas during rush hours is increasingly important as it can help authorities make informed decisions for congestion mitigation or scheduling of infrastructure development in an area.…
The main objective of this article is to derive a mathematical theory associated with the nonlinear stability and dynamic transitions of the basic shear flows associated with baroclinic instability, which plays a fundamental role in the…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
Variations in stratospheric atmospheric circulation significantly influence tropospheric weather and climate, and understanding these variations can guide stratospheric aircraft development and operations. Despite a century of progress,…
The efficiency of traffic flows in urban areas is known to crucially depend on signal operation. Here, elements of signal control are discussed, based on the minimization of overall travel times or vehicle queues. Interestingly, we find…
Classifying the state of the atmosphere into a finite number of large-scale circulation regimes is a popular way of investigating teleconnections, the predictability of severe weather events, and climate change. Here, we investigate a…