Related papers: Adapted Variational Bayes for Functional Data Regi…
Although there is a rich literature on methods for allowing the variance in a univariate regression model to vary with predictors, time and other factors, relatively little has been done in the multivariate case. Our focus is on developing…
Agent-based modelling (ABMing) is a powerful and intuitive approach to modelling complex systems; however, the intractability of ABMs' likelihood functions and the non-differentiability of the mathematical operations comprising these models…
We develop a Bayesian graphical modeling framework for functional data for correlated multivariate random variables observed over a continuous domain. Our method leads to graphical Markov models for functional data which allows the graphs…
We present an improved Bayesian framework for performing inference of affine transformations of constrained functions. We focus on quadrature with nonnegative functions, a common task in Bayesian inference. We consider constraints on the…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
The cumulative shrinkage process is an increasing shrinkage prior that can be employed within models in which additional terms are supposed to play a progressively negligible role. A natural application is to Gaussian factor models, where…
Likelihood-free Bayesian inference algorithms are popular methods for calibrating the parameters of complex, stochastic models, required when the likelihood of the observed data is intractable. These algorithms characteristically rely…
We study data-driven decision-making problems in the Bayesian framework, where the expectation in the Bayes risk is replaced by a risk-sensitive entropic risk measure. We focus on problems where calculating the posterior distribution is…
Despite the frequent use of agent-based models (ABMs) for studying social phenomena, parameter estimation remains a challenge, often relying on costly simulation-based heuristics. This work uses variational inference to estimate the…
Sensitivity analyses reveal the influence of various modeling choices on the outcomes of statistical analyses. While theoretically appealing, they are overwhelmingly inefficient for complex Bayesian models. In this work, we propose…
Bayesian optimization is a widely used technique for optimizing black-box functions, with Expected Improvement (EI) being the most commonly utilized acquisition function in this domain. While EI is often viewed as distinct from other…
Variational Bayes (VB) is rapidly becoming a popular tool for Bayesian inference in statistical modeling. However, the existing VB algorithms are restricted to cases where the likelihood is tractable, which precludes the use of VB in many…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…
We introduce a novel Bayesian framework for estimating time-varying volatility by extending the Random Walk Stochastic Volatility (RWSV) model with Dynamic Shrinkage Processes (DSP) in log-variances. Unlike the classical Stochastic…
Modern statistical applications involving large data sets have focused attention on statistical methodologies which are both efficient computationally and able to deal with the screening of large numbers of different candidate models. Here…
We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric method for hierarchical modelling on a set of related density functions, where grouped data in the form of samples from each density function are available. Borrowing strength across the groups is a…
Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a model-based approach for gradient-free black-box function optimization. Typically, BO is powered by a Gaussian process (GP), whose algorithmic complexity is cubic in the number of evaluations. Hence, GP-based…
Variational Bayesian inference is an important machine-learning tool that finds application from statistics to robotics. The goal is to find an approximate probability density function (PDF) from a chosen family that is in some sense…
Structural equation models are commonly used to capture the relationship between sets of observed and unobservable variables. Traditionally these models are fitted using frequentist approaches but recently researchers and practitioners have…