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The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Sébastien Marmin , Maurizio Filippone

We study statistical calibration, i.e., adjusting features of a computational model that are not observable or controllable in its associated physical system. We focus on functional calibration, which arises in many manufacturing processes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-13 Babak Farmanesh , Arash Pourhabib , Balabhaskar Balasundaram , Austin Buchanan

We unify empirical Bayes and variational Bayes for approximating unnormalized densities. This framework, named unnormalized variational Bayes (UVB), is based on formulating a latent variable model for the random variable $Y=X+N(0,\sigma^2…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-31 Saeed Saremi

Bayesian inference often faces a trade-off between computational speed and sampling accuracy. We propose an adaptive workflow that integrates rapid amortized inference with gold-standard MCMC techniques to achieve a favorable combination of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Chengkun Li , Aki Vehtari , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev , Luigi Acerbi , Marvin Schmitt

We describe a diffeomorphic registration algorithm that allows groups of images to be accurately aligned to a common space, which we intend to incorporate into the SPM software. The idea is to perform inference in a probabilistic graphical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-10 Mikael Brudfors , Yaël Balbastre , Guillaume Flandin , Parashkev Nachev , John Ashburner

The spatial error model (SEM) is a type of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model for analysing spatially correlated data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most widely used Bayesian methods for estimating SEM, but it has…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Anjana Wijayawardhana , David Gunawan , Thomas Suesse

We analyze the dynamics of an algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Burak Çakmak , Manfred Opper

Time warping function provides a mathematical representation to measure phase variability in functional data. Recent studies have developed various approaches to estimate optimal warping between functions and provide non-Euclidean models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Yijia Ma , Xinyu Zhou , Wei Wu

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Gregor Zens , Mark F. J. Steel

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are expressive latent variable models that can be used to learn complex probability distributions from training data. However, the quality of the resulting model crucially relies on the expressiveness of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Lars Mescheder , Sebastian Nowozin , Andreas Geiger

Optimal data detection in massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems often requires prohibitively high computational complexity. A variety of detection algorithms have been proposed in the literature, offering different…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-02 Yong Li , Sushanta K. Mallick , Tao Zeng , Junxing Zhang

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected with measurement errors on discretized grids. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-13 Jingjing Yang , Dennis D. Cox , Jong Soo Lee , Peng Ren , Taeryon Choi

We develop a fully Bayesian framework for function-on-scalars regression with many predictors. The functional data response is modeled nonparametrically using unknown basis functions, which produces a flexible and data-adaptive functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-25 Daniel R. Kowal , Daniel C. Bourgeois

Bayesian methods are particularly effective for addressing inverse problems due to their ability to manage uncertainties inherent in the inference process. However, employing these methods with costly forward models poses significant…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-10-30 G. Robalo Rei , C. P. Schmidt , J. Nitzler , M. Dinkel , W. A. Wall

Accounting for phase variability is a critical challenge in functional data analysis. To separate it from amplitude variation, functional data are registered, i.e., their observed domains are deformed elastically so that the resulting…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-13 Alexander Bauer , Fabian Scheipl , Helmut Küchenhoff , Alice-Agnes Gabriel

Bayesian inference for high-dimensional inverse problems is computationally costly and requires selecting a suitable prior distribution. Amortized variational inference addresses these challenges via a neural network that approximates the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-19 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Rafael Orozco , Felix J. Herrmann

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-30 Luigi Acerbi

Functional data often exhibit both amplitude and phase variation around a common base shape, with phase variation represented by a so called warping function. The process removing phase variation by curve alignment and inference of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-26 Eric Fu , Nancy Heckman

With the advancements of computer architectures, the use of computational models proliferates to solve complex problems in many scientific applications such as nuclear physics and climate research. However, the potential of such models is…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-05 Vojtech Kejzlar , Tapabrata Maiti