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Related papers: Nonparametric change-point analysis of volatility

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In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-03 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette

We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Archil Gulisashvili

We derive limit theorems for the empirical distribution function of "devolatilized" increments of an It\^{o} semimartingale observed at high frequencies. These "devolatilized" increments are formed by suitably rescaling and truncating the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-03 Viktor Todorov , George Tauchen

This work delves into presenting a probabilistic method for analyzing linear process data with weakly dependent innovations, focusing on detecting change-points in the mean and estimating its spectral density. We develop a test for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Ramkrishna Jyoti Samanta

Change-point detection has been a classical problem in statistics and econometrics. This work focuses on the problem of detecting abrupt distributional changes in the data-generating distribution of a sequence of high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-20 Shubhadeep Chakraborty , Xianyang Zhang

Volatility asymmetry is a hot topic in high-frequency financial market. In this paper, we propose a new econometric model, which could describe volatility asymmetry based on high-frequency historical data and low-frequency historical data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-15 Huiling Yuan , Yong Zhou , Lu Xu , Yun Lei Sun , Xiang Yu Cui

This paper considers a sequence of random variables generated according to a common distribution. The distribution might undergo periods of transient changes at an unknown set of time instants, referred to as change-points. The objective is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-04-26 Javad Heydari , Ali Tajer

We propose a non-parametric statistical procedure for detecting multiple change-points in multidimensional signals. The method is based on a test statistic that generalizes the well-known Kruskal-Wallis procedure to the multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-02-11 Alexandre Lung-Yut-Fong , Céline Lévy-Leduc , Olivier Cappé

It\^{o} processes are the most common form of continuous semimartingales, and include diffusion processes. This paper is concerned with the nonparametric regression relationship between two such It\^{o} processes. We are interested in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Per Aslak Mykland , Lan Zhang

In quantitative finance, we often fit a parametric semimartingale model to asset prices. To ensure our model is correct, we must then perform goodness-of-fit tests. In this paper, we give a new goodness-of-fit test for volatility-like…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-07 Adam D. Bull

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the locations of change points in a high-dimensional mean shift model. To that end, we develop a locally refitted least squares estimator and obtain component-wise and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-21 Abhishek Kaul , George Michailidis

In this paper, we present the double smoothed nonparametric approach for infinitesimal conditional volatility of jump-diffusion model based on high frequency data. Under certain minimal conditions, we obtain the strong consistency and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Yuping Song

In this paper, we show how to estimate the asymptotic (conditional) covariance matrix, which appears in central limit theorems in high-frequency estimation of asset return volatility. We provide a recipe for the estimation of this matrix by…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-26 Kim Christensen , Mark Podolskij , Nopporn Thamrongrat , Bezirgen Veliyev

The purpose of this study is to provide a new methodology of how one can consistently estimate a change-point in time series data. In contrast with previous studies, the suggested methodology employs only the empirical spectral density and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-22 Gyorgy H. Terdik , Stergios B. Fotopoulos , Venkata K. Jandhyala

In this article we look at stochastic processes with uncertain parameters, and consider different ways in which information is obtained when carrying out observations. For example we focus on the case of a the random evolution of a traded…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-08 Will Hicks

Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-01 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

This paper is concerned with the detection of multiple change-points in the joint distribution of independent categorical variables. The procedures introduced rely on model selection and are based on a penalized least-squares criterion.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-01-08 Nathalie Akakpo

We consider a multidimensional It\^o process $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$ with some unknown drift coefficient process $b_t$ and volatility coefficient $\sigma(X_t,\theta)$ with covariate process $X=(X_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$, the function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-06-18 Stefano M. Iacus , Nakahiro Yoshida

In this study, we introduce the first-of-its-kind class of tests for detecting change points in the distribution of a sequence of independent matrix-valued random variables. The tests are constructed using the weighted square integral…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Žikica Lukić , Bojana Milošević

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette