English
Related papers

Related papers: Nonparametric change-point analysis of volatility

200 papers

In this paper we present a slight modification of the Fourier estimation method of the spot volatility (matrix) process of a continuous It\^o semimartingale where the estimators are always non-negative definite. Since the estimators are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-02 Jirô Akahori , Nien-Lin Liu , Maria Elvira Mancino , Yukie Yasuda

In multiple change-point problems, different data segments often follow different distributions, for which the changes may occur in the mean, scale or the entire distribution from one segment to another. Without the need to know the number…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-29 Changliang Zou , Guosheng Yin , Long Feng , Zhaojun Wang

In this paper, we consider estimating spot/instantaneous volatility matrices of high-frequency data collected for a large number of assets. We first combine classic nonparametric kernel-based smoothing with a generalised shrinkage technique…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-22 Ruijun Bu , Degui Li , Oliver Linton , Hanchao Wang

Change-point models are widely used by statisticians to model drastic changes in the pattern of observed data. Least squares/maximum likelihood based estimation of change-points leads to curious asymptotic phenomena. When the change-point…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-20 Rui Song , Moulinath Banerjee , Michael R. Kosorok

Without imposing prior distributional knowledge underlying multivariate time series of interest, we propose a nonparametric change-point detection approach to estimate the number of change points and their locations along the temporal axis.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-13 Xiaodong Wang , Fushing Hsieh

The aim of sequential change-point detection is to issue an alarm when it is thought that certain probabilistic properties of the monitored observations have changed. This work is concerned with nonparametric, closed-end testing procedures…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 Ivan Kojadinovic , Ghislain Verdier

We study the parameter estimation for parabolic, linear, second-order, stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) observing a mild solution on a discrete grid in time and space. A high-frequency regime is considered where the mesh of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-11 Markus Bibinger , Mathias Trabs

Rough volatility models have gained considerable interest in the quantitative finance community in recent years. In this paradigm, the volatility of the asset price is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with a small value for the Hurst…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-16 Carsten Chong , Marc Hoffmann , Yanghui Liu , Mathieu Rosenbaum , Grégoire Szymanski

We study the estimation of leverage effect and volatility of volatility by using high-frequency data with the presence of jumps. We first construct spot volatility estimator by using the empirical characteristic function of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Qiang Liu , Zhi Liu , Wang Zhou

We propose nonparametric estimators of the occupation measure and the occupation density of the diffusion coefficient (stochastic volatility) of a discretely observed It\^{o} semimartingale on a fixed interval when the mesh of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-30 Jia Li , Viktor Todorov , George Tauchen

The typical central limit theorems in high-frequency asymptotics for semimartingales are results on stable convergence to a mixed normal limit with an unknown conditional variance. Estimating this conditional variance usually is a hard…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-25 Mathias Vetter

The basic model for high-frequency data in finance is considered, where an efficient price process is observed under microstructure noise. It is shown that this nonparametric model is in Le Cam's sense asymptotically equivalent to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-25 Markus Reiß

We propose a new estimation scheme for estimation of the volatility parameters of a semimartingale with jumps based on a jump-detection filter. Our filter uses all of data to analyze the relative size of increments and to discriminate jumps…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-16 Haruhiko Inatsugu , Nakahiro Yoshida

In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-27 Camilla Damian , Rüdiger Frey

Change point analysis has applications in a wide variety of fields. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. Sequential detection is an online version in which new data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-16 David S. Matteson , Nicholas A. James

In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Alexandra Chronopoulou , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We propose two nonparametric tests for investigating the pathwise properties of a signal modeled as the sum of a L\'{e}vy process and a Brownian semimartingale. Using a nonparametric threshold estimator for the continuous component of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-04-25 Rama Cont , Cecilia Mancini

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in multivariate time series analysis for describing the short-time dynamics of the data. The reduced-rank VAR models are of particular interest when dealing with high-dimensional and highly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-02 Farida Enikeeva , Olga Klopp , Mathilde Rousselot

We develop theory leading to testing procedures for the presence of a change point in the intraday volatility pattern. The new theory is developed in the framework of Functional Data Analysis. It is based on a model akin to the stochastic…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-19 Piotr Kokoszka , Tim Kutta , Neda Mohammadi , Haonan Wang , Shixuan Wang

This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-06-10 Vladimir Spokoiny