Related papers: Posterior predictive p-values and the convex order

We seek to conduct statistical inference for a large collection of primary parameters, each with its own nuisance parameters. Our approach is partially Bayesian, in that we treat the primary parameters as fixed while we model the nuisance…

Variational inference has been widely used in machine learning literature to fit various Bayesian models. In network analysis, this method has been successfully applied to solve the community detection problems. Although these results are…

Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…

Bayesian predictive probabilities are commonly used for interim monitoring of clinical trials through efficacy and futility stopping rules. Despite their usefulness, calculation of predictive probabilities, particularly in pre-experiment…

In this paper, we study a bi-criterion framework for assessing scoring functions in the context of binary classification. The positive and negative predictive values (ppv and npv, respectively) are conditional probabilities of the true…

$P$-values that are derived from continuously distributed test statistics are typically uniformly distributed on $(0,1)$ under least favorable parameter configurations (LFCs) in the null hypothesis. Conservativeness of a $p$-value $P$…

Bayes factors for composite hypotheses have difficulty in encoding vague prior knowledge, as improper priors cannot be used and objective priors may be subjectively unreasonable. To address these issues I revisit the posterior Bayes factor,…

We consider the problem of sampling from the posterior distribution of a $d$-dimensional coefficient vector $\boldsymbol{\theta}$, given linear observations $\boldsymbol{y} = \boldsymbol{X}\boldsymbol{\theta}+\boldsymbol{\varepsilon}$. In…

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In…

Bayesian modeling helps applied researchers articulate assumptions about their data and develop models tailored for specific applications. Thanks to good methods for approximate posterior inference, researchers can now easily build, use,…

In risk theory, financial asset returns often follow heavy-tailed distributions. Investors and risk managers used to compare risk measures as the value at risk or tail value at risk in order over the whole confidence levels to avoid the…

The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…

The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…

We consider a class of non-conjugate priors as a mixing family of distributions for a parameter (e.g., Poisson or gamma rate, inverse scale or precision of an inverse-gamma, inverse variance of a normal distribution) of an exponential…

We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…

P-values are widely used in both the social and natural sciences to quantify the statistical significance of observed results. The recent surge of big data research has made the p-value an even more popular tool to test the significance of…

In this paper, we consider the so-called Shape Invariant Model which stands for the estimation of a function f0 submitted to a random translation of law g0 in a white noise model. We are interested in such a model when the law of the…

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian…

We study Bayesian persuasion when the receiver evaluates actions by reward-side Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) rather than expected utility. CVaR preferences break the standard action-based direct-recommendation reduction: merging signals…