Related papers: Multi-curve HJM modelling for risk management
Several phenomena are available representing market activity: volumes, number of trades, durations between trades or quotes, volatility - however measured - all share the feature to be represented as positive valued time series. When…
We propose a heterogeneous simultaneous graphical dynamic linear model (H-SGDLM), which extends the standard SGDLM framework to incorporate a heterogeneous autoregressive realised volatility (HAR-RV) model. This novel approach creates a…
In this paper, a multivariate constrained robust M-regression (MCRM) method is developed to estimate shaping coefficients for electricity forward prices. An important benefit of the new method is that model arbitrage can be ruled out at an…
We develop a liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework to improve the estimation of time-varying covariance structures under market frictions. We introduce two novel portfolio-level liquidity measures, liquidity jump and…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…
This paper focuses on a dynamic multi-asset mean-variance portfolio selection problem under model uncertainty. We develop a continuous time framework for taking into account ambiguity aversion about both expected return rates and…
We set up a structural model to study credit risk for a portfolio containing several or many credit contracts. The model is based on a jump--diffusion process for the risk factors, i.e. for the company assets. We also include correlations…
A diversified risk-adjusted time-series momentum (TSMOM) portfolio can deliver substantial abnormal returns and offer some degree of tail risk protection during extreme market events. The performance of existing TSMOM strategies, however,…
We employ model predictive control for a multi-period portfolio optimization problem. In addition to the mean-variance objective, we construct a portfolio whose allocation is given by model predictive control with a risk-parity objective,…
We present Monte Carlo-Euler methods for a weak approximation problem related to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term structure model, based on \Ito stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensional spaces, and prove strong and weak…
We develop theory and applications of forward characteristic processes in discrete time following a seminal paper of Jan Kallsen and Paul Kr\"uhner. Particular emphasis is placed on the dynamics of volatility surfaces which can be easily…
We develop an approach to time-consistent risk evaluation of continuous-time processes in Markov systems. Our analysis is based on dual representation of coherent risk measures, differentiability concepts for multivalued mappings, and a…
We introduce a novel multi-factor Heston-based stochastic volatility model, which is able to reproduce consistently typical multi-dimensional FX vanilla markets, while retaining the (semi)-analytical tractability typical of affine models…
This study delves into the intricate realm of risk evaluation within the domain of specific financial derivatives, notably options. Unlike other financial instruments, like bonds, options are susceptible to broader risks. A distinctive…
Many multi-variate time series obtained in the natural sciences and engineering possess a repetitive behavior, as for instance state-space trajectories of industrial machines in discrete automation. Recovering the times of recurrence from…
A multivariate fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) with component-wise Hurst exponents is used to model and forecast realized volatility. We investigate the interplay between correlation coefficients and Hurst exponents and propose a novel…
We introduce efficient numerical methods for generic HJM equations of interest rate theory by means of high-order weak approximation schemes. These schemes allow for QMC implementations due to the relatively low dimensional integration…
Motivated by recent work studying massive imaging data in the neuroimaging literature, we propose multivariate varying coefficient models (MVCM) for modeling the relation between multiple functional responses and a set of covariates. We…
We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider time-consistent, dynamic risk metrics as objective functions to…