Related papers: Multi-curve HJM modelling for risk management
Over the last decade, nonparametric methods have gained increasing attention for modeling complex data structures due to their flexibility and minimal structural assumptions. In this paper, we study a general multivariate nonparametric…
We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of…
We study a stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios. Building on the Schwartz 97 stochastic convenience yield model for commodity prices, we formulate a utility maximization problem for dynamically trading a single-maturity…
We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility…
When interest rate dynamics are described by the Libor Market Model as in BGM97, we show how some essential risk-management results can be obtained from the dual of the calibration program. In particular, if the objetive is to maximize…
Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts…
Agents' heterogeneity is recognized as a driver mechanism for the persistence of financial volatility. We focus on the multiplicity of investment strategies' horizons, we embed this concept in a continuous time stochastic volatility…
We develop an arbitrage-free deep learning framework for yield curve and bond price forecasting based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term-structure model and a dynamic Nelson-Siegel parameterization of forward rates. Our approach embeds a…
We propose an alternative approach on the existence of affine realizations for HJM interest rate models. It is applicable to a wide class of models, and simultaneously it is conceptually rather comprehensible. We also supplement some known…
This paper considers the single factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton model for the interest rate curve with stochastic volatility. Its natural formulation, described in terms of stochastic differential equations, is solved through Monte Carlo…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-sensitive model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by stochastic multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider a time-consistent, dynamic risk evaluation of the…
We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly correlated data,…
Industrial processes generate a massive amount of monitoring data that can be exploited to uncover hidden time losses in the system. This can be used to enhance the accuracy of maintenance policies and increase the effectiveness of the…
This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…
Multivariate dynamic time series models are widely encountered in practical studies, e.g., modelling policy transmission mechanism and measuring connectedness between economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper proposes a…
We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…
We propose and analyze numerical methods for the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model. To construct the methods, we first discretize the infinite dimensional HJM equation in maturity time variable using quadrature rules for approximating the…
This article presents a generic framework for modeling the dynamics of forward curves in commodity market as commodity derivatives are typically traded by futures or forwards. We have theoretically demonstrated that commodity prices are…
Given a Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) interest rate model $\mathcal{M}$ and a parametrized family of finite dimensional forward rate curves $\mathcal{G}$, this paper provides a technique for projecting the infinite dimensional forward rate…