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We study maximum likelihood estimation in Gaussian graphical models from a geometric point of view. An algebraic elimination criterion allows us to find exact lower bounds on the number of observations needed to ensure that the maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-30 Caroline Uhler

Gaussian mixture models are central to classical statistics, widely used in the information sciences, and have a rich mathematical structure. We examine their maximum likelihood estimates through the lens of algebraic statistics. The MLE is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-19 Carlos Améndola , Mathias Drton , Bernd Sturmfels

The asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under regularity conditions is a cornerstone of statistical theory. In this paper, we give explicit upper bounds on the distributional distance between the distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-23 Andreas Anastasiou

Log-linear exponential random graph models are a specific class of statistical network models that have a log-linear representation. This class includes many stochastic blockmodel variants. In this paper, we focus on $\beta$-stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-12 Cashous Bortner , Jennifer Garbett , Elizabeth Gross , Christopher McClain , Naomi Krawzik , Derek Young

We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Aryeh Kontorovich , Amichai Painsky

Linear structural equation models postulate noisy linear relationships between variables of interest. Each model corresponds to a path diagram, which is a mixed graph with directed edges that encode the domains of the linear functions and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-16 Mathias Drton , Christopher Fox , Andreas Käufl , Guillaume Pouliot

The maximum likelihood threshold (MLT) of a graph $G$ is the minimum number of samples to almost surely guarantee existence of the maximum likelihood estimate in the corresponding Gaussian graphical model. We give a new characterization of…

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-17 Raphaël Huser , Anthony C. Davison , Marc G. Genton

We consider statistical models arising from the common set of solutions to a sparse polynomial system with general coefficients. The maximum likelihood degree counts the number of critical points of the likelihood function restricted to the…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2022-04-20 Julia Lindberg , Nathan Nicholson , Jose Israel Rodriguez , Zinan Wang

This article presents an algebraic topology perspective on the problem of finding a complete coverage probability of a one dimensional domain $X$ by a random covering, and develops techniques applicable to the problem beyond the one…

Algebraic Topology · Mathematics 2015-09-11 Rafal Komendarczyk , Jeffrey Pullen

The likelihood function of a finite mixture model is a non-convex function with multiple local maxima and commonly used iterative algorithms such as EM will converge to different solutions depending on initial conditions. In this paper we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-08-19 Elad Mezuman , Yair Weiss

We show that algebraic varieties with maximum likelihood degree one are exactly the images of reduced A-discriminantal varieties under monomial maps with finite fibers. The maximum likelihood estimator corresponding to such a variety is…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2014-06-03 June Huh

The maximum likelihood threshold of a statistical model is the minimum number of datapoints required to fit the model via maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper we determine the maximum likelihood thresholds of generic linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Daniel Irving Bernstein , Steven J. Gortler , Louis Theran

We study the maximum likelihood (ML) degree of linear concentration models in algebraic statistics. We relate it to an intersection problem on the variety of complete quadrics. This allows us to provide an explicit, basic, albeit of high…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2020-11-19 Mateusz Michałek , Leonid Monin , Jarosław Wiśniewski

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is routinely used for the maximum likelihood estimation in the latent class analysis. However, the EM algorithm comes with no guarantees of reaching the global optimum. We study the geometry of…

In this paper we revisit the likelihood geometry of Gaussian graphical models. We give a detailed proof that the ML-degree behaves monotonically on induced subgraphs. Furthermore, we complete a missing argument that the ML-degree of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Carlos Améndola , Rodica Andreea Dinu , Mateusz Michałek , Martin Vodička

Bogdan et al. established a new criterion to determine the existence of a maximum likelihood estimator in discrete exponential families. It uses the notion of the set of uniqueness, which allows to apply the problem to the Ising model from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Tomasz Skalski , Tomasz Stroiński

We study the critical points of the likelihood function over the Fermat hypersurface. This problem is related to one of the main problems in statistical optimization: maximum likelihood estimation. The number of critical points over a…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2015-04-09 Daniele Agostini , Davide Alberelli , Francesco Grande , Paolo Lella

The $\lambda$-exponential family generalizes the standard exponential family via a generalized convex duality motivated by optimal transport. It is the constant-curvature analogue of the exponential family from the information-geometric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-07 Xiwei Tian , Ting-Kam Leonard Wong , Jiaowen Yang , Jun Zhang

Graphical models with bi-directed edges (<->) represent marginal independence: the absence of an edge between two vertices indicates that the corresponding variables are marginally independent. In this paper, we consider maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-12 Mathias Drton , Thomas S. Richardson