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Inference in hidden Markov model has been challenging in terms of scalability due to dependencies in the observation data. In this paper, we utilize the inherent memory decay in hidden Markov models, such that the forward and backward…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…
We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…
The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…
Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…
We present a method for active inference with partial observations in stochastic systems through incentive design, also known as the leader-follower game. Consider a leader agent who aims to infer a follower agent's type given a finite set…
Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…
Time series subject to change in regime have attracted much interest in domains such as econometry, finance or meteorology. For discrete-valued regimes, some models such as the popular Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) describe time series whose…
In GNSS-denied environments, aiding a vehicle's inertial navigation system (INS) is crucial to reducing the accumulated navigation drift caused by sensor errors (e.g. bias and noise). One potential solution is to use measurements of gravity…
In unconstrained maximum a posteriori (MAP) and maximum likelihood estimation, the inverse of minus the merit-function Hessian matrix is an approximation of the estimate covariance matrix. In the Bayesian context of MAP estimation, it is…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…
We consider the NP-hard problem of MAP-inference for undirected discrete graphical models. We propose a polynomial time and practically efficient algorithm for finding a part of its optimal solution. Specifically, our algorithm marks some…
The objective is to study an on-line Hidden Markov model (HMM) estimation-based Q-learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) on finite state and action sets. When the full state observation is available,…
This paper presents a mathematical framework for causal nonlinear prediction in settings where observations are generated from an underlying hidden Markov model (HMM). Both the problem formulation and the proposed solution are motivated by…
State estimation in robotic systems presents significant challenges, particularly due to the prevalence of multimodal posterior distributions in real-world scenarios. One effective strategy for handling such complexity is to compute maximum…
In this article we focus on Maximum Likelihood estimation (MLE) for the static parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs). We will consider the case where one cannot or does not want to compute the conditional likelihood density of the…
Maximum a Posteriori assignment (MAP) is the problem of finding the most probable instantiation of a set of variables given the partial evidence on the other variables in a Bayesian network. MAP has been shown to be a NP-hard problem [22],…
Hidden Markov models are widely used for modeling sequential data but typically have limited applicability in observational causal inference due to their strong conditional independence assumptions. I introduce feedback-augmented…
Sparse structure learning in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models is an important problem in multivariate statistical signal processing; since the sparsity pattern naturally encodes the conditional independence relationship among…