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We propose a Neural Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with Adaptive Granularity Attention (AGA) for high-frequency order flow modeling. The model addresses the challenge of capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets, where…
We study the problem of efficient exploration in order to learn an accurate model of an environment, modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP). Efficient exploration in this problem requires the agent to identify the regions in which…
The ability to accurately predict human behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of robot autonomy in interactive settings. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as…
Recombination is an important event in the evolution of HIV. It affects the global spread of the pandemic as well as evolutionary escape from host immune response and from drug therapy within single patients. Comprehensive computational…
Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference in discrete-valued Markov random fields is a fundamental problem in machine learning that involves identifying the most likely configuration of random variables given a distribution. Due to the…
We address the problem of detecting an anomalous process among a large number of processes. At each time t, normal processes are in state zero (normal state), while the abnormal process may be in either state zero (normal state) or state…
We develop a predictive-first optimisation framework for streaming hidden Markov models. Unlike classical approaches that prioritise full posterior recovery under a fully specified generative model, we assume access to regime-specific…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a versatile statistical framework commonly used in ecology to characterize behavioural patterns from animal movement data. In HMMs, the observed data depend on a finite number of underlying hidden states,…
Active inference, a neurally-inspired model for inferring actions based on the free energy principle (FEP), has been proposed as a unifying framework for understanding perception, action, and learning in the brain. Active inference has…
Actigraphy is widely used in sleep studies but lacks a universal unsupervised algorithm for sleep/wake identification. In this study, we proposed a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based unsupervised algorithm that can automatically and…
This article presents a new search algorithm for the NP-hard problem of optimizing functions of binary variables that decompose according to a graphical model. It can be applied to models of any order and structure. The main novelty is a…
We present a randomized maximum a posteriori (rMAP) method for generating approximate samples of posteriors in high dimensional Bayesian inverse problems governed by large-scale forward problems. We derive the rMAP approach by: 1) casting…
We propose a new scheme for selecting pool states for the embedded Hidden Markov Model (HMM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This new scheme allows the embedded HMM method to be used for efficient sampling in state space models…
The Baum-Welch (B-W) algorithm is the most widely accepted method for inferring hidden Markov models (HMM). However, it is prone to getting stuck in local optima, and can be too slow for many real-time applications. Spectral learning of…
We introduce a new procedure to neuralize unsupervised Hidden Markov Models in the continuous case. This provides higher flexibility to solve problems with underlying latent variables. This approach is evaluated on both synthetic and real…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a widely-used generative model that copes with sequential data, assuming that each observation is conditioned on the state of a hidden Markov chain. In this paper, we derive a novel algorithm to cluster HMMs…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a ubiquitous tool to model time series data, and have been widely used in two main tasks of Automatic Music Transcription (AMT): note segmentation, i.e. identifying the played notes after a multi-pitch…
Much effort has been directed at algorithms for obtaining the highest probability configuration in a probabilistic random field model known as the maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference problem. In many situations, one could benefit from…
In this article a flexible Bayesian non-parametric model is proposed for non-homogeneous hidden Markov models. The model is developed through the amalgamation of the ideas of hidden Markov models and predictor dependent stick-breaking…
In this paper we propose an Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) algorithm for solving a Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization problem, in which the system has state and input constraints and a nonlinear input map. The…