Related papers: Rare Event Extinction on Stochastic Networks
We consider the propagation of a contagion process (epidemic) on a network and study the problem of dynamically allocating a fixed curing budget to the nodes of the graph, at each time instant. For bounded degree graphs, we provide a lower…
What does an Erdos-Renyi graph look like when a rare event happens? This paper answers this question when p is fixed and n tends to infinity by establishing a large deviation principle under an appropriate topology. The formulation and…
Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…
We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate…
We investigate in detail the model of a trophic web proposed by Amaral and Meyer [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 652 (1999)]. We focused on small-size systems that are relevant for real biological food webs and for which the fluctuations are playing…
Under mild non-degeneracy assumptions on branching rates in each generation, we provide a criterion for almost-sure extinction of a multi-type branching process with time-dependent branching rates. We also provide a criterion for the total…
This note gives an exponential tail approximation for the extinction time of a subcritical multitype branching process arising from the SIR epidemic model on a random graph with given degrees, where the type corresponds to the vertex…
This paper is a collection of recent results on discrete-time and continuous-time branching random walks. Some results are new and others are known. Many aspects of this theory are considered: local, global and strong local survival, the…
A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process $Z_n$ with offspring distribution $Y$, there exists a random variable $X$…
In the setting of stochastic dynamical systems that eventually go extinct, the quasi-stationary distributions are useful to understand the long-term behavior of a system before evanescence. For a broad class of applicable continuous-time…
Stochastic discrete-time SIS and SIR models of endemic diseases are introduced and analyzed. For the deterministic, mean-field model, the basic reproductive number $R_0$ determines their global dynamics. If $R_0\le 1$, then the frequency of…
Consider a supercritical branching random walk in a time-inhomogeneous random environment. We impose a selection (called barrier) on survival in the following way. The position of the barrier may depend on the generation and the…
We study a model of a multi-species ecosystem described by Lotka-Volterra-like equations. Interactions among species form a network whose evolution is determined by the dynamics of the model. Numerical simulations show power-law…
The interplay of biological, social, structural and random factors makes disease forecasting extraordinarily complex. The course of an epidemic exhibits average growth dynamics determined by features of the pathogen and the population, yet…
We develop a new algorithm for the estimation of rare event probabilities associated with the steady-state of a Markov stochastic process with continuous state space $\mathbb R^d$ and discrete time steps (i.e. a discrete-time $\mathbb…
We study a generalized discrete-time multi-type Wright-Fisher population process. The mean-field dynamics of the stochastic process is induced by a general replicator difference equation. We prove several results regarding the asymptotic…
Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like…
Ecological networks describe the interactions between different species, informing us of how they rely on one another for food, pollination and survival. If a species in an ecosystem is under threat of extinction, it can affect other…
Time-limited states characterise many dynamical processes on networks: disease infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These…
Let $T$ be the extinction moment of a critical branching process $Z=(Z_{n},n\geq 0) $ in a random environment specified by iid probability generating functions. We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of extinction of the…