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Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-16 Jovana Mitrovic , Dino Sejdinovic , Yee Whye Teh

Gaussian process regression is a frequently used statistical method for flexible yet fully probabilistic non-linear regression modeling. A common obstacle is its computational complexity which scales poorly with the number of observations.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Adam Gorm Hoffmann , Claus Thorn Ekstrøm , Andreas Kryger Jensen

We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-02 Daniel R. Kowal , David S. Matteson , David Ruppert

We explain how effective automatic probability density function estimates can be constructed using contemporary Bayesian inference engines such as those based on no-U-turn sampling and expectation propagation. Extensive simulation studies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-28 M. P. Wand , J. C. F. Yu

A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-14 Shan Ba , V. Roshan Joseph

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC for short) is a family of computational techniques which offer an almost automated solution in situations where evaluation of the posterior likelihood is computationally prohibitive, or whenever…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-04 Gérard Biau , Frédéric Cérou , Arnaud Guyader

Accurate tuning of hyperparameters is crucial to ensure that models can generalise effectively across different settings. In this paper, we present theoretical guarantees for hyperparameter selection using variational Bayes in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Dennis Nieman , Botond Szabó

It has historically been a challenge to perform Bayesian inference in a design-based survey context. The present paper develops a Bayesian model for sampling inference in the presence of inverse-probability weights. We use a hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Yajuan Si , Natesh S. Pillai , Andrew Gelman

Many problems arising in applications result in the need to probe a probability distribution for functions. Examples include Bayesian nonparametric statistics and conditioned diffusion processes. Standard MCMC algorithms typically become…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-20 S. L. Cotter , G. O. Roberts , A. M. Stuart , D. White

Active learning methods for neural networks are usually based on greedy criteria which ultimately give a single new design point for the evaluation. Such an approach requires either some heuristics to sample a batch of design points at one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Evgenii Tsymbalov , Sergei Makarychev , Alexander Shapeev , Maxim Panov

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a family of computational techniques in Bayesian statistics. These techniques allow to fi t a model to data without relying on the computation of the model likelihood. They instead require to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-27 Maxime Lenormand , Franck Jabot , Guillaume Deffuant

Biological data objects often have both of the following features: (i) they are functions rather than single numbers or vectors, and (ii) they are correlated due to phylogenetic relationships. In this paper we give a flexible statistical…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2012-12-20 Nick S. Jones , John Moriarty

Approximation algorithms are widely used in many engineering problems. To obtain a data set for approximation a factorial design of experiments is often used. In such case the size of the data set can be very large. Therefore, one of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-04 Mikhail Belyaev , Evgeny Burnaev , Yermek Kapushev

We explore various Bayesian approaches to estimate partial Gaussian graphical models. Our hierarchical structures enable to deal with single-output as well as multiple-output linear regressions, in small or high dimension, enforcing either…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-14 Eunice Okome Obiang , Pascal Jézéquel , Frédéric Proïa

A stationary Gaussian process is said to be long-range dependent (resp., anti-persistent) if its spectral density $f(\lambda)$ can be written as $f(\lambda)=|\lambda|^{-2d}g(|\lambda|)$, where $0<d<1/2$ (resp., $-1/2<d<0$), and $g$ is…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-24 Judith Rousseau , Nicolas Chopin , Brunero Liseo

Gaussian Processes are widely used for regression tasks. A known limitation in the application of Gaussian Processes to regression tasks is that the computation of the solution requires performing a matrix inversion. The solution also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-22 Sourish Das , Sasanka Roy , Rajiv Sambasivan

We consider the problem of constructing Bayesian based confidence sets for linear functionals in the inverse Gaussian white noise model. We work with a scale of Gaussian priors indexed by a regularity hyper-parameter and apply the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-21 Botond Szabó

This paper presents a method for approximate Gaussian process (GP) regression with tensor networks (TNs). A parametric approximation of a GP uses a linear combination of basis functions, where the accuracy of the approximation depends on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 Clara Menzen , Eva Memmel , Kim Batselier , Manon Kok

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods perform inference on model-specific parameters of mechanistically motivated parametric statistical models when evaluating likelihoods is difficult. Central to the success of ABC methods is…

Computation · Statistics 2013-01-29 Erkan O. Buzbas , Noah A. Rosenberg

It is now known that an extended Gaussian process model equipped with rescaling can adapt to different smoothness levels of a function valued parameter in many nonparametric Bayesian analyses, offering a posterior convergence rate that is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-06 Surya T. Tokdar