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The causal (belief) network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independencies in a joint probability distribution. The exact methods and the approximation methods, which perform probabilistic inference in causal networks,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Richard E. Neapolitan , James Kenevan

This article explores the optimization of variational approximations for posterior covariances of Gaussian multiway arrays. To achieve this, we establish a natural differential geometric optimization framework on the space using the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-10 Quinn Simonis , Martin T. Wells

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Bikramjit Das

We describe a new, surprisingly simple algorithm, that simulates exact sample paths of a class of stochastic differential equations. It involves rejection sampling and, when applicable, returns the location of the path at a random…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Alexandros Beskos , Gareth O. Roberts

Undirected graphical models encode in a graph $G$ the dependency structure of a random vector $Y$. In many applications, it is of interest to model $Y$ given another random vector $X$ as input. We refer to the problem of estimating the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-06-22 Han Liu , Xi Chen , John Lafferty , Larry Wasserman

Simulation studies are used to understand the properties of statistical methods. A key luxury in many simulation studies is knowledge of the true value (i.e. the estimand) being targeted. With this oracle knowledge in-hand, the researcher…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-09 Alex Ocampo , Enrico Giudice , Zachary R. McCaw , Tim P. Morris

In this paper, we propose a parametrised factor that enables inference on Gaussian networks where linear dependencies exist among the random variables. Our factor representation is effectively a generalisation of traditional Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-05 J. C. Schoeman , C. E. van Daalen , J. A. du Preez

Directed acyclic graphs provide a fundamental tool for representing directed dependence structures in multivariate network data, and are widely used to model financial and economic networks. However, accurate and interpretable estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Huihang Liu , Wenhui Li , Xinyu Zhang

Using topological summaries of gene trees as a basis for species tree inference is a promising approach to obtain acceptable speed on genomic-scale datasets, and to avoid some undesirable modeling assumptions. Here we study the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-17 Elizabeth S. Allman , James H. Degnan , John A. Rhodes

This paper develops a new statistical inference theory for the precision matrix of high-frequency data in a high-dimensional setting. The focus is not only on point estimation but also on interval estimation and hypothesis testing for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-20 Yuta Koike

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-07 Francesco Cordoni , Alessio Sancetta

Expanding a lower-dimensional problem to a higher-dimensional space and then projecting back is often beneficial. This article rigorously investigates this perspective in the context of finite mixture models, namely how to improve inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-10 Andrea Mercatanti , Fan Li , Fabrizia Mealli

We consider the model of random trees introduced by Devroye [SIAM J. Comput. 28 (1999) 409-432]. The model encompasses many important randomized algorithms and data structures. The pieces of data (items) are stored in a randomized fashion…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-05 Nicolas Broutin , Cecilia Holmgren

Sparse covariance matrices play crucial roles by encoding the interdependencies between variables in numerous fields such as genetics and neuroscience. Despite substantial studies on sparse covariance matrices, existing methods face several…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Rakheon Kim , Irina Gaynanova

For a multivariate normal distribution, the sparsity of the covariance and precision matrices encodes complete information about independence and conditional independence properties. For general distributions, the covariance and precision…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-22 Rebecca E Morrison , Ricardo Baptista , Estelle L Basor

We introduce the notion of a "random basic walk" on an infinite graph, give numerous examples, list potential applications, and provide detailed comparisons between the random basic walk and existing generalizations of simple random walks.…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2013-08-06 David White

We derive a covariance formula for the class of `topological events' of smooth Gaussian fields on manifolds; these are events that depend only on the topology of the level sets of the field, for example (i) crossing events for level or…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-20 Dmitry Beliaev , Stephen Muirhead , Alejandro Rivera

We introduce the concept of Randomly Modulated Gaussian Processes as a unifying framework for modeling, analyzing and classifying anomalous diffusion models in heterogeneous media. This formulation incorporates correlations in the…

Biological Physics · Physics 2026-03-16 Yann Lanoiselée , Denis S. Grebenkov , Gianni Pagnini

We provide the first generic exact simulation algorithm for multivariate diffusions. Current exact sampling algorithms for diffusions require the existence of a transformation which can be used to reduce the sampling problem to the case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Jose Blanchet , Fan Zhang

A discrete time quantum walk is known to be the single-particle sector of a quantum cellular automaton. For a long time, these models have interested the community for their nice properties such as locality or translation invariance. This…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-03-03 Mathieu Roget , Giuseppe Di Molfetta
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