Related papers: Tipping points near a delayed saddle node bifurcat…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous…
We present a study of a delay differential equation (DDE) model for the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). We investigate the behavior of the model when subjected to periodic forcing. The unforced model has a bistable region consisting of a…
Tipping is a phenomenon in multistable systems where small changes in inputs cause huge changes in outputs. When the parameter varies within a certain time scale, the rate will affect the tipping behaviors. These behaviors are undesirable…
We study a discrete non-autonomous system whose autonomous counterpart (with the frozen bifurcation parameter) admits a saddle-node bifurcation, and in which the bifurcation parameter slowly changes in time and is characterized by a sweep…
Many physical systems are forced by external inputs, which can sometimes take the form of chaotic variation. A particular example is found in applications related to weather and climate, where chaotic variation is prevalent across various…
We analyze situations where a saddle-node bifurcation occurs on a fractal basin boundary. Specifically, we are interested in what happens when a system parameter is slowly swept in time through the bifurcation. Such situations are known to…
A generic saddle-node bifurcation is proposed to modelize fast transitions of finite amplitude arising in geophysical (and perhaps other) contexts, when they result from the intrinsic dynamics of the system. The fast transition is…
Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes…
Many dynamical systems exhibit abrupt transitions or tipping as the control parameter is varied. In scenarios where the parameter is varied continuously, the rate of change of control parameter greatly affects the performance of early…
Unlike classical bifurcations, border-collision bifurcations occur when, for example, a fixed point of a continuous, piecewise $\mathcal{C}^{1}$ map crosses a boundary in state space. Although classical bifurcations have been much studied,…
We explore sequential escape behaviour of coupled bistable systems under the influence of stochastic perturbations. We consider transient escapes from a marginally stable "quiescent" equilibrium to a more stable "active" equilibrium. The…
An in-depth analysis of nonautonomous bifurcations of saddle-node type for scalar differential equations $x'=-x^2+q(t)\,x+p(t)$, where $q\colon\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ and $p\colon\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ are bounded and uniformly…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…
Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited range of the bifurcation parameter that corresponds to that…
We consider how breakdown of the quasistatic approximation for attractors can lead to rate-induced tipping, where a qualitative change in tracking/tipping behaviour of trajectories can be characterised in terms of a critical rate.…
The effect of a temporal modulation at three times the critical frequency on a Hopf bifurcation is studied in the framework of amplitude equations. We consider a complex Ginzburg-Landau equation with an extra quadratic term, resulting from…
A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the…