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In the context of multilevel longitudinal data, where sample units are collected in clusters, an important aspect that should be accounted for is the unobserved heterogeneity between sample units and between clusters. For this aim we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-08-10 F. Bartolucci , M. Lupparelli

In this short note we prove ``effective" geometric ergodicity (i.e a Perron-Frobenius theorem) for Markov chains in random mixing dynamical environment satisfying a random non-uniform version of the Doeblin condition. Effectivity here means…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Yeor Hafouta

Completely random measures provide a principled approach to creating flexible unsupervised models, where the number of latent features is infinite and the number of features that influence the data grows with the size of the data set. Due…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-26 Peiyuan Zhu , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Trevor Campbell

In this paper, we prove that finite state space non parametric hidden Markov models are identifiable as soon as the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and the emission probability distributions are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-20 Elisabeth Gassiat , Alice Cleynen , Stéphane Robin

We develop a general framework for studying ergodicity of order-preserving Markov semigroups. We establish natural and in a certain sense optimal conditions for existence and uniqueness of the invariant measure and exponential convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-28 Oleg Butkovsky , Michael Scheutzow

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

We show that any application of the technique of unbiased simulation becomes perfect simulation when coalescence of the two coupled Markov chains can be practically assured in advance. This happens when a fixed number of iterations is high…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-15 George M. Leigh , Wen-Hsi Yang , Montana E. Wickens , Amanda R. Northrop

We present a Markov-chain analysis of blockwise-stochastic algorithms for solving partially block-separable optimization problems. Our main contributions to the extensive literature on these methods are statements about the Markov operators…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-01 D. Russell Luke

In this paper, we relate the coupling of Markov chains, at the basis of perfect sampling methods, with damage spreading, which captures the chaotic nature of stochastic dynamics. For two-dimensional spin glasses and hard spheres we point…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-09-02 Etienne P. Bernard , Cédric Chanal , Werner Krauth

Hidden variable graphical models can sometimes imply constraints on the observable distribution that are more complex than simple conditional independence relations. These observable constraints can falsify assumptions of the model that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Michael C. Sachs , Erin E. Gabriel , Robin J. Evans , Arvid Sjölander

In this paper, the forgetting of the initial distribution for a non-ergodic Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is studied. A new set of conditions is proposed to establish the forgetting property of the filter, which significantly extends all the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-10-14 Elisabeth Gassiat , Benoit Landelle , Eric Moulines

Mostof the existing literature on supervised machine learning problems focuses on the case when the training data set is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many practical problems are characterized by temporal dependence and strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-23 Nikola Sandrić , Stjepan Šebek

We introduce a two-parameter ensemble of random discrete-time Markov models that simultaneously captures critical slowing down and broken detailed balance. Extending a previously studied heterogeneous Markov ensemble, we incorporate…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2026-02-06 Faheem Mosam , Eric De Giuli

We develop a theory of weak Poincar\'e inequalities to characterize convergence rates of ergodic Markov chains. Motivated by the application of Markov chains in the context of algorithms, we develop a relevant set of tools which enable the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-11 Christophe Andrieu , Anthony Lee , Sam Power , Andi Q. Wang

This work is devoted to the almost sure stabilization of adaptive control systems that involve an unknown Markov chain. The control system displays continuous dynamics represented by differential equations and discrete events given by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-07-10 Bernard Bercu , Francois Dufour , G. George Yin

We study finite horizon optimal switching problems for hidden Markov chain models under partially observable Poisson processes. The controller possesses a finite range of strategies and attempts to track the state of the unobserved state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-22 Erhan Bayraktar , Mike Ludkovski

Weak Feller property of controlled and control-free Markov chains lead to many desirable properties. In control-free setups this leads to the existence of invariant probability measures for compact spaces and applicability of numerical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-08-07 Ali Devran Kara , Naci Saldi , Serdar Yüksel

We propose an exact technique to calculate lower bounds of spectral gaps of discrete time reversible Markov chains on finite state sets. Spectral gaps are a common tool for evaluating convergence rates of Markov chains. As an illustration,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 N. Destainville

We consider deep multivariate models for heterogeneous collections of random variables. In the context of computer vision, such collections may e.g. consist of images, segmentations, image attributes, and latent variables. When developing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Dmitrij Schlesinger , Boris Flach , Alexander Shekhovtsov

Gaussian mixtures are commonly used for modeling heavy-tailed error distributions in robust linear regression. Combining the likelihood of a multivariate robust linear regression model with a standard improper prior distribution yields an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-05 Haoxiang Li , Qian Qin , Galin L. Jones