Related papers: Bayesian Prediction for The Winds of Winter
Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at the law through the lens of probability theory: "The prophecies of what the courts will do in fact, and nothing more pretentious, are what I mean by the law." Yet few…
Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be…
TV series such as HBO's Game of Thrones have seen a high number of dedicated followers, mostly due to the dramatic murders of the most important characters. In our work, we try to predict killer and victim pairs using data about previous…
The exponential growth in scientific publications poses a severe challenge for human researchers. It forces attention to more narrow sub-fields, which makes it challenging to discover new impactful research ideas and collaborations outside…
We provide a new characterization of the Dirichlet distribution. This characterization implies that under assumptions made by several previous authors for learning belief networks, a Dirichlet prior on the parameters is inevitable.
This work introduces a Bayesian framework that unifies a wide class of opinion dynamics models. In this framework, an individual's opinion on a topic is the expected value of their belief, represented as a random variable with a prior…
Today's popular TV series tend to develop continuous, complex plots spanning several seasons, but are often viewed in controlled and discontinuous conditions. Consequently, most viewers need to be re-immersed in the story before watching a…
This paper (1)shows that the best supported current psychological theory (Cheng, 1997) of how human subjects judge the causal power or influence of variations in presence or absence of one feature on another, given data on their…
In 1914 S. Ramanujan recorded a list of 17 series for $1/\pi$. We survey the methods of proofs of Ramanujan's formulae and indicate recently discovered generalizations, some of which are not yet proven.
Prediction of the future performance of academic journals is a task that can benefit a variety of stakeholders including editorial staff, publishers, indexing services, researchers, university administrators and granting agencies. Using…
This paper reviews the growing field of Bayesian prediction. Bayes point and interval prediction are defined and exemplified and situated in statistical prediction more generally. Then, four general approaches to Bayes prediction are…
Wind speed forecasting has received a lot of attention in the recent past from researchers due to its enormous benefits in the generation of wind power and distribution. The biggest challenge still remains to be accurate prediction of wind…
This paper describes how to analyze the influence of Earth system variables on the errors when providing temperature forecasts. The initial framework to get the data has been based on previous research work, which resulted in a very…
This study analyzes Walt Whitman's stylistic changes in his phenomenal work Leaves of Grass from a computational perspective and relates findings to standard literary criticism on Whitman. The corpus consists of all 7 editions of Leaves of…
A new general procedure for a priori selection of more predictable events from a time series of observed variable is proposed. The procedure is applicable to time series which contains different types of events that feature significantly…
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian predictive density estimator to predict the time until the r-th goal is scored in a hockey game, using ancillary information such as their performances in the past, points and specialists' opinions. To…
In the paper "Randomizations of Scattered Sentences", Keisler showed that if Martin's axiom for aleph one holds, then every scattered sentence has few separable randomizations, and asked whether the conclusion could be proved in ZFC alone.…
The paper introduces a new methodology for assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts. The first part of this methodology consists in computing confidence intervals with a confidence level defined by the…
The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that…
Roy and Bhattacharya (2020) provided Bayesian characterization of infinite series, and their most important application, namely, to the Dirichlet series characterizing the (in)famous Riemann Hypothesis, revealed insights that are not in…