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We consider the problem of binary prediction with expert advice in settings where experts have agency and seek to maximize their credibility. This paper makes three main contributions. First, it defines a model to reason formally about…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Tim Roughgarden , Okke Schrijvers

We consider an original problem that arises from the issue of security analysis of a power system and that we name optimal discovery with probabilistic expert advice. We address it with an algorithm based on the optimistic paradigm and the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-10-26 Sébastien Bubeck , Damien Ernst , Aurélien Garivier

The need for fast and robust optimization algorithms are of critical importance in all areas of machine learning. This paper treats the task of designing optimization algorithms as an optimal control problem. Using regret as a metric for an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-21 Philippe Casgrain , Anastasis Kratsios

We consider a robust aggregation problem in the presence of both truthful and adversarial experts. The truthful experts will report their private signals truthfully, while the adversarial experts can report arbitrarily. We assume experts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Yongkang Guo , Yuqing Kong

We design and analyze minimax-optimal algorithms for online linear optimization games where the player's choice is unconstrained. The player strives to minimize regret, the difference between his loss and the loss of a post-hoc benchmark…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-12 H. Brendan McMahan

Online learning with expert advice is a fundamental problem of sequential prediction. In this problem, the algorithm has access to a set of $n$ "experts" who make predictions on each day. The goal on each day is to process these…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-04-22 Vaidehi Srinivas , David P. Woodruff , Ziyu Xu , Samson Zhou

Practitioners conducting adaptive experiments often encounter two competing priorities: maximizing total welfare (or `reward') through effective treatment assignment and swiftly concluding experiments to implement population-wide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Chao Qin , Daniel Russo

We consider online prediction of a binary sequence with expert advice. For this setting, we devise label-efficient forecasting algorithms, which use a selective sampling scheme that enables collecting much fewer labels than standard…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-23 Rui M. Castro , Fredrik Hellström , Tim van Erven

The research area of algorithms with predictions has seen recent success showing how to incorporate machine learning into algorithm design to improve performance when the predictions are correct, while retaining worst-case guarantees when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Michael Dinitz , Sungjin Im , Thomas Lavastida , Benjamin Moseley , Sergei Vassilvitskii

We study the problem of expert advice under partial bandit feedback setting and create a sequential minimax optimal algorithm. Our algorithm works with a more general partial monitoring setting, where, in contrast to the classical bandit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-15 Kaan Gokcesu , Hakan Gokcesu

This work investigates the online machine learning problem of prediction with expert advice in an adversarial setting through numerical analysis of, and experiments with, a related partial differential equation. The problem is a repeated…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-09 Jeff Calder , Nadejda Drenska , Drisana Mosaphir

We present a powerful general framework for designing data-dependent optimization algorithms, building upon and unifying recent techniques in adaptive regularization, optimistic gradient predictions, and problem-dependent randomization. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-14 Mehryar Mohri , Scott Yang

The role of an expert in the decision-making process is crucial, as the final recommendation depends on his disposition, clarity of mind, experience, and knowledge of the problem. However, the recommendation also depends on their honesty.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Jacek Szybowski , Konrad Kułakowski , Sebastian Ernst

We consider online learning problems in the realizable setting, where there is a zero-loss solution, and propose new Differentially Private (DP) algorithms that obtain near-optimal regret bounds. For the problem of online prediction from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-01 Hilal Asi , Vitaly Feldman , Tomer Koren , Kunal Talwar

We introduce a new protocol for prediction with expert advice in which each expert evaluates the learner's and his own performance using a loss function that may change over time and may be different from the loss functions used by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-03-23 Alexey Chernov , Vladimir Vovk

We study online learning settings in which experts act strategically to maximize their influence on the learning algorithm's predictions by potentially misreporting their beliefs about a sequence of binary events. Our goal is twofold.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Rupert Freeman , David M. Pennock , Chara Podimata , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan

We address the problem of sequential prediction with expert advice in a non-stationary environment with long-term memory guarantees in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth [4]. We give a linear-time algorithm that improves on the best known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 James Robinson , Mark Herbster

In this paper, we study the behavior of the Hedge algorithm in the online stochastic setting. We prove that anytime Hedge with decreasing learning rate, which is one of the simplest algorithm for the problem of prediction with expert…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-10 Jaouad Mourtada , Stéphane Gaïffas

This paper proposes an optimization algorithm based on how human fight and learn from each duelist. Since this algorithm is based on population, the proposed algorithm starts with an initial set of duelists. The duel is to determine the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2015-12-03 Totok Ruki Biyanto , Henokh Yernias Fibrianto , Gunawan Nugroho , Erny Listijorini , Titik Budiati , Hairul Huda

In the experts problem, on each of $T$ days, an agent needs to follow the advice of one of $n$ ``experts''. After each day, the loss associated with each expert's advice is revealed. A fundamental result in learning theory says that the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-03-10 Binghui Peng , Aviad Rubinstein