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We develop a new approach to solving classification problems, which is bases on the theory of coherent measures of risk and risk sharing ideas. The proposed approach aims at designing a risk-averse classifier. The new approach allows for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-24 Constantine Vitt , Darinka Dentcheva , Hui Xiong

Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but non-zero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-22 Lin Ge , Yuzi Zhang , Lance A. Waller , Robert H. Lyles

The fundamental theorem of statistical learning states that for binary classification problems, any Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) learning rule has close to optimal sample complexity. In this paper we seek for a generic optimal learner…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-13 Amit Daniely , Shai Shalev-Shwartz

Maximum likelihood estimation is a common method of estimating the parameters of the probability distribution from a given sample. This paper aims to introduce the maximum likelihood estimation in the framework of sublinear expectation. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-16 Xinpeng Li , Yue Liu , Jiaquan Lu

With recent advances in high throughput technology, researchers often find themselves running a large number of hypothesis tests (thousands+) and esti- mating a large number of effect-sizes. Generally there is particular interest in those…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-11-18 Noah Simon , Richard Simon

Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Nicolas Posocco , Antoine Bonnefoy

In a data-scarce field such as healthcare, where models often deliver predictions on patients with rare conditions, the ability to measure the uncertainty of a model's prediction could potentially lead to improved effectiveness of decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-26 Lotta Meijerink , Giovanni Cinà , Michele Tonutti

Reliable uncertainty estimation is one of the major challenges for medical classification tasks. While many approaches have been proposed, recently the statistical framework of conformal predictions has gained a lot of attention, due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Hendrik Mehrtens , Tabea Bucher , Titus J. Brinker

We address the statistical estimation of composite functionals which may be nonlinear in the probability measure. Our study is motivated by the need to estimate coherent measures of risk, which become increasingly popular in finance,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-13 Darinka Dentcheva , Spiridon Penev , Andrzej Ruszczynski

In stochastic optimization, the population risk is generally approximated by the empirical risk. However, in the large-scale setting, minimization of the empirical risk may be computationally restrictive. In this paper, we design an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-22 Murat A. Erdogdu , Mohsen Bayati , Lee H. Dicker

This paper examines the precision of estimators of Quantile-Based Risk Measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall, Spectral Risk Measures). It first addresses the question of how to estimate the precision of these estimators, and proposes…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-30 Kevin Dowd , John Cotter

This text is a survey on cross-validation. We define all classical cross-validation procedures, and we study their properties for two different goals: estimating the risk of a given estimator, and selecting the best estimator among a given…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-10 Sylvain Arlot

Graph sparsification is a well-established technique for accelerating graph-based learning algorithms, which uses edge sampling to approximate dense graphs with sparse ones. Because the sparsification error is random and unknown, users must…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Siyao Wang , Miles E. Lopes

An important challenge in statistical analysis concerns the control of the finite sample bias of estimators. This problem is magnified in high-dimensional settings where the number of variables $p$ diverges with the sample size $n$, as well…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-21 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser

We address the problem of estimating the expected shortfall risk of a financial loss using a finite number of i.i.d. data. It is well known that the classical plug-in estimator suffers from poor statistical performance when faced with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-13 Daniel Bartl , Stephan Eckstein

In classification problems, sampling bias between training data and testing data is critical to the ranking performance of classification scores. Such bias can be both unintentionally introduced by data collection and intentionally…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-02 Chandler Zuo

The empirical likelihood is a powerful nonparametric tool, that emulates its parametric counterpart -- the parametric likelihood -- preserving many of its large-sample properties. This article tackles the problem of assessing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-29 Duc-Khanh To , Gianfranco Adimari , Monica Chiogna

In a wide range of statistical learning problems such as ranking, clustering or metric learning among others, the risk is accurately estimated by $U$-statistics of degree $d\geq 1$, i.e. functionals of the training data with low variance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-25 Stéphan Clémençon , Aurélien Bellet , Igor Colin

We study the problem of estimating a distribution over a finite alphabet from an i.i.d. sample, with accuracy measured in relative entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence). While optimal bounds on the expected risk are known, high-probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Jaouad Mourtada

A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-27 Caren Hasler