Related papers: Indefinitely Oscillating Martingales
This paper deals with inference in a class of stable but nearly-unstable processes. Autoregressive processes are considered, in which the bridge between stability and instability is expressed by a time-varying companion matrix $A_{n}$ with…
We study the termination problem for nondeterministic recursive probabilistic programs. First, we show that a ranking-supermartingales-based approach is both sound and complete for bounded terminiation (i.e., bounded expected termination…
Consider a discrete-time martingale $\{X_t\}$ taking values in a Hilbert space $\mathcal H$. We show that if for some $L \geq 1$, the bounds $\mathbb{E} \left[\|X_{t+1}-X_t\|_{\mathcal H}^2 \mid X_t\right]=1$ and $\|X_{t+1}-X_t\|_{\mathcal…
We study finite-horizon optimal switching with discrete intervention dates on a general filtration, allowing continuous-time observations between decision dates, and develop a deep-learning-based dual framework with computable upper bounds.…
An estimation method is proposed for a wide variety of discrete time stochastic processes that have an intractable likelihood function but are otherwise conveniently specified by an integral transform such as the characteristic function,…
Self-normalized processes arise naturally in statistical applications. Being unit free, they are not affected by scale changes. Moreover, self-normalization often eliminates or weakens moment assumptions. In this paper we present several…
We develop and implement new probabilistic strategy for proving exponential ergodicity for interacting diffusion processes on unbounded lattice. The concept of the solution used is rather weak as we construct the process in infinite…
We investigate the properties of a discrete-time martingale $\{X_m\}_{m\in \mathbb Z_{\geq 0}}$, where all differences between adjacent random variables are limited to be not more than a constant as a promise. In this situation, it is known…
We develop a general framework for extracting highly uniform bounds on local stability for stochastic processes in terms of information on fluctuations or crossings. This includes a large class of martingales: As a corollary of our main…
In this paper, we develop new optional stopping theorems for scenarios where the stopping rules are defined by bounded continuity regions. Moreover, we establish a wide variety of inequalities on the supremums and infimums of functions of…
Control applications for cyber-physical systems must make reliably safe control decisions in the presence of continuous dynamics as well as stochastic uncertainty. Providing safety guarantees for such systems requires formal modeling and…
We generalize standard credal set models for imprecise probabilities to include higher order credal sets -- confidences about confidences. In doing so, we specify how an agent's higher order confidences (credal sets) update upon observing…
We study the almost-sure termination problem for probabilistic programs. First, we show that supermartingales with lower bounds on conditional absolute difference provide a sound approach for the almost-sure termination problem. Moreover,…
We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define a notion of computable randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…
We develop and implement new probabilistic strategy for proving basic results about long time behaviour for interacting diffusion processes on unbounded lattice. The concept of the solution used is rather weak as we construct the process as…
We develop a class of exponential bounds for the probability that a martingale sequence crosses a time-dependent linear threshold. Our key insight is that it is both natural and fruitful to formulate exponential concentration inequalities…
Developing a thermodynamic theory of computation is a challenging task at the interface of non-equilibrium thermodynamics and computer science. In particular, this task requires dealing with difficulties such as stochastic halting times,…
We give an example of a long range Bernoulli percolation process on a group non-quasi-isometric with $\mathbb{Z}$, in which clusters are almost surely finite for all values of the parameter. This random graph admits diverse equivalent…
As an alternative to the well-known methods of "chaining" and "bracketing" that have been developed in the study of random fields, a new method, which is based on a stochastic maximal inequality derived by using the Taylor expansion, is…
We give optimal convergence rates in the central limit theorem for a large class of martingale difference sequences with bounded third moments. The rates depend on the behaviour of the conditional variances and for stationary sequences the…