Related papers: The zero-patient problem with noisy observations
We consider the statistical inference for noisy incomplete binary (or 1-bit) matrix. Despite the importance of uncertainty quantification to matrix completion, most of the categorical matrix completion literature focuses on point estimation…
The problem of identifying the source of a propagation based on limited observations has been studied significantly in recent years, as it can help reducing the damage caused by unwanted infections. In this paper we present an efficient…
Causal inference from observational data can be viewed as a missing data problem arising from a hypothetical population-scale randomized trial matched to the observational study. This links a target trial protocol with a corresponding…
It has been known that epidemic outbreaks in the SIR model on networks are described by phase transitions. Despite the similarity with percolation transitions, whether an epidemic outbreak occurs or not cannot be predicted with probability…
In real social networks, person-to-person interactions are known to be heterogeneous, which can affect the way a disease spreads through a population, reaches a tipping point in the fraction of infected individuals, and becomes an epidemic.…
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents. Broken links are either permanently removed or reconnected…
We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…
Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…
Traditional studies about disease dynamics have focused on global stability issues, due to their epidemiological importance. We study a classical SIR-SI model for arboviruses in two different directions: we begin by describing an…
This study investigates an inverse problem associated with a time-fractional HIV infection model incorporating nonlinear diffusion. The model describes the dynamics of uninfected target cells, infected cells, and free virus particles, where…
We consider the spread of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease through finite populations and derive an expression for the final size distribution. Our derivation allows arbitrary distributions of the number of transmissions…
We study the problem of identifying a single infection source in a network under the susceptible-infected-recovered-infected (SIRI) model. We describe the infection model via a state-space model, and utilizing a state propagation approach,…
Mathematical models of epidemics often use compartmental models dividing the population into several compartments. Based on a microscopic setting describing the temporal evolution of the subpopulation sizes in the compartments by stochastic…
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
We study the problem of finding the index of the minimum value of a vector from noisy observations. This problem is relevant in population/policy comparison, discrete maximum likelihood, and model selection. We develop an asymptotically…
In this paper we study a susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model with asymptomatic patients, contact tracing and isolation on a configuration network. Using degree based approximation, we derive a system of differential equations for…
In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce a null model in which the travel-induced correlations are cancelled. They…
We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The…