Related papers: Surprise probabilities in Markov chains

Quantum walk search may exhibit phenomena beyond the intuition from a conventional random walk theory. One of such examples is exceptional configuration phenomenon -- it appears that it may be much harder to find any of two or more marked…

The shortest-path, commute time, and diffusion distances on undirected graphs have been widely employed in applications such as dimensionality reduction, link prediction, and trip planning. Increasingly, there is interest in using…

Consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 0}$ with an ergodic probability measure $\pi$. Let $\Psi$ a function on the state space of the chain, with $\alpha$-tails with respect to $\pi$, $\alpha\in (0,2)$. We find sufficient conditions on the…

The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…

For a symmetric, homogeneous and irreducible random walk on d-dimensional integer lattice Z^d, having zero mean and a finite variance of jumps, we study the passage times (with possible infinite values) determined by the starting point x,…

The set of visited sites and the number of visited sites are two basic properties of the random walk trajectory. We consider two independent random walks on a hyper-cubic lattice and study ordering probabilities associated with these…

Suppose that $X$ is a simple random walk on $\Z_n^d$ for $d \geq 3$ and, for each $t$, we let $\U(t)$ consist of those $x \in \Z_n^d$ which have not been visited by $X$ by time $t$. Let $\tcov$ be the expected amount of time that it takes…

Convergence of directed forests, spanning on random subsets of lattices or on point processes, towards the Brownian web has made the subject of an abundant literature, a large part of which relies on a criterion proposed by Fontes, Isopi,…

In this paper, we propose a new Markov chain which generalizes random-to-random shuffling on permutations to random-to-random shuffling on linear extensions of a finite poset of size $n$. We conjecture that the second largest eigenvalue of…

We prove deviation bounds for the random variable $\sum_{i=1}^{n} f_i(Y_i)$ in which $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^{\infty}$ is a Markov chain with stationary distribution and state space $[N]$, and $f_i: [N] \rightarrow [-a_i, a_i]$. Our bound improves…

We present analytical results for the distribution of first hitting times of random walkers (RWs) on directed Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi (ER) networks. Starting from a random initial node, a random walker hops randomly along directed edges between…

For the simple random walk in Z^2 we study those points which are visited an unusually large number of times, and provide a new proof of the Erdos-Taylor conjecture describing the number of visits to the most visited point.

Motivated by applications in Markov chain Monte Carlo, we discuss what it means for one Markov chain to be an approximation to another. Specifically included in that discussion are situations in which a Markov chain with continuous state…

We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…

We study Markov chains on $\mathbb Z^m$, $m\geq 2$, that behave like a standard symmetric random walk outside of the hyperplane (membrane) $H=\{0\}\times \mathbb Z^{m-1}$. The transition probabilities on the membrane $H$ are periodic and…

Recently, in ["The coin-turning walk and its scaling limit", Electronic Journal of Probability, 25 (2020)], the ``coin-turning walk'' was introduced on ${\mathbb Z}$. It is a non-Markovian process where the steps form a (possibly)…

We study scaling limits of non-increasing Markov chains with values in the set of non-negative integers, under the assumption that the large jump events are rare and happen at rates that behave like a negative power of the current state. We…

In the setting of non-reversible Markov chains on finite or countable state space, exact results on the distribution of the first hitting time to a given set $G$ are obtained. A new notion of "strong metastability time" is introduced to…

For random walks on networks (graphs), it is a theoretical challenge to explicitly determine the mean first-passage time (MFPT) between two nodes averaged over all pairs. In this paper, we study the MFPT of random walks in the famous…

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P})$ be a probability space and $E$ be a finite set. Assume that $X=(X_n)$ is an irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain, defined on $(\Omega,\mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P})$, with values in $E$ and with transition…