Related papers: Surprise probabilities in Markov chains

We present analytical results for the distribution of first return (FR) times of random walks (RWs) on random regular graphs (RRGs) consisting of $N$ nodes of degree $c \ge 3$. Starting from a random initial node $i$ at time $t=0$, at each…

We study a model of a polling system, that is, a collection of $d$ queues with a single server that switches from queue to queue. The service time distribution and arrival rates change randomly every time a queue is emptied. This model is…

In this paper, we study the probability of visiting a distant point $a\in \mathbb{Z}^4$ by critical branching random walk starting from the origin. We prove that this probability is bounded by $1/(|a|^2\log |a|)$ up to a constant.

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

We consider open quantum walks on a graph, and consider the random variables defined as the passage time and number of visits to a given point of the graph. We study in particular the probability that the passage time is finite, the…

We study the so-called pinning model, which describes the behavior of a Markov chain interacting with a distinguished state. The interaction depends on an external source of randomness, called disorder, which can attract or repel the Markov…

Here, a new two-dimensional process, discrete in time and space, that yields the results of both a random walk and a quantum random walk, is introduced. This model describes the population distribution of four coin states |1>,-|1>, |0> -|0>…

A switching random walk, commonly known under the misnomer `oscillating random walk', is a real-valued Markov chain whose distribution of increments is determined by the sign of the current position. We explicitly identify an invariant…

Let $\{X_n\}$ be a Markov chain with transition probability $p_{ij}=a_{j-(i-1)^+},\forall i,j\ge 0$, where $a_j=0$ provided $j<0$, $a_0>0$, $a_0+a_1<1$ and $\sum_{n=0}^\infty a_n=1$. Let $\mu=\sum_{n=1}^\infty na_n$. It's known that…

We study a large class of reversible Markov chains with discrete state space and transition matrix $P_N$. We define the notion of a set of {\it metastable points} as a subset of the state space $\G_N$ such that (i) this set is reached from…

We consider irreducible reversible discrete time Markov chains on a finite state space. Mixing times and hitting times are fundamental parameters of the chain. We relate them by showing that the mixing time of the lazy chain is equivalent…

Let $m_{ij}$ be the mean first passage time from state $i$ to state $j$ in an $n$-state ergodic homogeneous Markov chain with transition matrix $T$. Let $G$ be the weighted digraph without loops whose vertex set coincides with the set of…

In this paper, we reveal the branching structure for a non-homogeneous random walk with bounded jumps. The ladder time $T_1,$ the first hitting time of $[1,\infty)$ by the walk starting from $0,$ could be expressed in terms of a…

We study a new technique for the asymptotic analysis of heavy-tailed systems conditioned on large deviations events. We illustrate our approach in the context of ruin events of multidimensional regularly varying random walks. Our approach…

We present a semi-Markov model of random walk on complex networks in discrete and continuous-time scenario. In the general setting of the semi-Markov chains, the duration of stay at given node - the sojourn time - is random, and the…

We consider finite irreducible Markov chains. It was shown that mean hitting time from one state to another satisfies the triangle inequality. Hence, sum of mean hitting time between couple of states in both directions is a metric on the…

We present results relating mixing times to the intersection time of branching random walk (BRW) in which the logarithm of the expected number of particles grows at rate of the spectral-gap $\mathrm{gap}$ . This is a finite state space…

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

We consider the problem of estimating the expected time to find a maximum degree node on a graph using a (parameterized) biased random walk. For assortative graphs the positive degree correlation serves as a local gradient for which a bias…

An (upward) skip-free Markov chain with the set of nonnegative integers as state space is a chain for which upward jumps may be only of unit size; there is no restriction on downward jumps. In a 1987 paper, Brown and Shao determined, for an…