Related papers: Estimation of the Hawkes Process With Renewal Immi…
Classic results show that the Hawkes self-exciting point process can be viewed as a collection of temporal clusters, where exogenously generated initial events give rise to endogenously driven descendant events. This perspective provides…
Processing high-volume, streaming data is increasingly common in modern statistics and machine learning, where batch-mode algorithms are often impractical because they require repeated passes over the full dataset. This has motivated…
Dramatic increases in the size and dimensionality of many recent data sets make crucial the need for sophisticated methods that can exploit inherent structure and handle missing values. In this article we derive an expectation-maximization…
Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…
We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient…
Kappa distributions are widely used in space plasma physics to model velocity distribution functions with heavy tails. Parameter estimation in these distributions is, however, complicated by the fact that the kappa distribution does not…
Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely used iterative algorithm for computing maximum likelihood estimate when dealing with Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). When the sample size is smaller than the data dimension, this could lead…
A common divide-and-conquer approach for Bayesian computation with big data is to partition the data, perform local inference for each piece separately, and combine the results to obtain a global posterior approximation. While being…
We estimate a general mixture of Markov jump processes. The key novel feature of the proposed mixture is that the transition intensity matrices of the Markov processes comprising the mixture are entirely unconstrained. The Markov processes…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
A family of continuous-state branching processes with immigration are constructed as the solution flow of a stochastic equation system driven by time-space noises. The family can be regarded as an inhomogeneous increasing path-valued…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…
Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely used iterative algorithm for computing (local) maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). It can be used in an extensive range of problems, including the clustering of data based on the Gaussian…
In this paper, we design a nonparametric online algorithm for estimating the triggering functions of multivariate Hawkes processes. Unlike parametric estimation, where evolutionary dynamics can be exploited for fast computation of the…
We study a genealogical model for continuous-state branching processes with immigration with a (sub)critical branching mechanism. This model allows the immigrants to be on the same line of descent. The corresponding family tree is an…
A non-homogeneous Poisson cluster model is studied, motivated by insurance applications. The Poisson center process which expresses arrival times of claims, triggers off cluster member processes which correspond to number or amount of…
Aggressive behavior in autistic inpatient youth often arises in temporally clustered bursts complicating efforts to distinguish external triggers from internal escalation. The sample population branching factor-the expected number of new…
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with…
In an extant population, how much information do extant individuals provide on the pedigree of their ancestors? Recent work by Kim, Mossel, Ramnarayan and Turner (2020) studied this question under a number of simplifying assumptions,…
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a fundamental tool in unsupervised machine learning. It is often used as an efficient way to solve Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation problems, especially for models with latent variables. It…