Related papers: The basic reproduction number as a predictor for e…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
Under limited available resources, strategies for mitigating the propagation of an epidemic such as random testing and contact tracing become inefficient. Here, we propose to accurately allocate the resources by computing over time an…
Inference of the reproduction number through time is of vital importance during an epidemic outbreak. Typically, epidemiologists tackle this using observed prevalence or incidence data. However, prevalence and incidence data alone is often…
We present a contact-based model to study the spreading of epidemics by means of extending the dynamic message passing approach to temporal networks. The shift in perspective from node- to edge-centric quantities enables accurate modelling…
Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…
The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches…
An approach to estimate the influence of the treatment-type controls on the basic reproduction number, R 0 , is proposed and elaborated. The presented approach allows one to estimate the effect of a given treatment strategy or to compare a…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is the canonical model of epidemics of infections that make people immune upon recovery. Many of the open questions in computational epidemiology concern the underlying contact structure's…
We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
Early estimates of the transmission properties of a newly emerged pathogen are critical to an effective public health response, and are often based on limited outbreak data. Here, we use simulations to investigate a potential source of bias…
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…
In the study of infectious diseases on networks, researchers calculate epidemic thresholds to help forecast whether a disease will eventually infect a large fraction of a population. Because network structure typically changes in time,…
This article examines how diseases on random networks spread in time. The disease is described by a probability distribution function for the number of infected and recovered individuals, and the probability distribution is described by a…
In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with infinitely many pathogen variants infecting a homogeneous host population. We show that the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ of the pathogen can be defined in that…