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Order-preserving couplings are elegant tools for obtaining robust estimates of the time-dependent and stationary distributions of Markov processes that are too complex to be analyzed exactly. The starting point of this paper is to study…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) describe sequential decision-making processes; MDP policies return for every state in that process an advised action. Classical algorithms can efficiently compute policies that are optimal with respect to,…
This paper describes a data reduction technique in case of a markov chain of specified order. Instead of observing all the transitions in a markov chain we record only a few of them and treat the remaining part as missing. The decision…
Markovian population models are suitable abstractions to describe well-mixed interacting particle systems in situation where stochastic fluctuations are significant due to the involvement of low copy particles. In molecular biology,…
The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…
Scientific studies in many areas of biology routinely employ evolutionary analyses based on the probabilistic inference of phylogenetic trees from molecular sequence data. Evolutionary processes that act at the molecular level are highly…
Biochemical networks are used in computational biology, to model the static and dynamical details of systems involved in cell signaling, metabolism, and regulation of gene expression. Parametric and structural uncertainty, as well as…
Random forests are decision tree ensembles that can be used to solve a variety of machine learning problems. However, as the number of trees and their individual size can be large, their decision making process is often incomprehensible. In…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
In this paper, we introduce Max Markov Chain (MMC), a novel representation for a useful subset of High-order Markov Chains (HMCs) with sparse correlations among the states. MMC is parsimony while retaining the expressiveness of HMCs. Even…
Infinite population models are important tools for studying population dynamics of evolutionary algorithms. They describe how the distributions of populations change between consecutive generations. In general, infinite population models…
Molecular dynamics simulations have the potential to provide atomic-level detail and insight to important questions in chemical physics that cannot be observed in typical experiments. However, simply generating a long trajectory is…
We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…
We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…
We consider the discrete-time migration-recombination equation, a deterministic, nonlinear dynamical system that describes the evolution of the genetic type distribution of a population evolving under migration and recombination in a law of…
We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a…
Motivated by applications arising in networked systems, this work examines controlled regime-switching systems that stem from a mean-variance formulation. A main point is that the switching process is a hidden Markov chain. An additional…
We present a sufficient condition for a non-injective function of a Markov chain to be a second-order Markov chain with the same entropy rate as the original chain. This permits an information-preserving state space reduction by merging…
Existing studies on the degree correlation of evolving networks typically rely on differential equations and statistical analysis, resulting in only approximate solutions due to inherent randomness. To address this limitation, we propose an…