Related papers: A general HJM framework for multiple yield curve m…

We price European-style options written on forward contracts in a commodity market, which we model with an infinite-dimensional Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach. For this purpose we introduce a new class of state-dependent volatility…

We exhibit conditions under which the flow of marginal distributions of a discontinuous semimartingale $\xi$ can be matched by a Markov process, whose infinitesimal generator is expressed in terms of the local characteristics of $\xi$. Our…

The intensity of a default time is obtained by assuming that the default indicator process has an absolutely continuous compensator. Here we drop the assumption of absolute continuity with respect to the Lebesgue measure and only assume…

Almost all existing hierarchical federated learning (FL) models are limited to two aggregation layers, restricting scalability and flexibility in complex, large-scale networks. In this work, we propose a Multi-Layer Hierarchical Federated…

In energy markets, joint historical and implied calibration is of paramount importance for practitioners, yet notoriously challenging due to the need to align historical correlations of futures contracts with implied volatility smiles from…

In this work, we consider a multivariate regression model with one-sided errors. We assume for the regression function to lie in a general H\"{o}lder class and estimate it via a nonparametric local polynomial approach that consists of…

We revisit the recently introduced concept of return risk measures (RRMs) and extend it by incorporating risk management via multiple so-called eligible assets. The resulting new class of risk measures, termed multi-asset return risk…

Given the univariate marginals of a real-valued, continuous-time martingale, (respectively, a family of measures parameterised by $t \in [0,T]$ which is increasing in convex order, or a double continuum of call prices) we construct a family…

We explicitly construct the supermartingale version of the Fr{\'e}chet-Hoeffding coupling in the setting with infinitely many marginal constraints. This extends the results of Henry-Labordere et al. obtained in the martingale setting. Our…

We present a function-valued stochastic volatility model designed to capture the continuous-time evolution of forward curves in fixed-income or commodity markets. The dynamics of the (logarithmic) forward curves are defined by a…

This paper contains a long summary of the basic properties of higher FR torsion. An attempt is made to simplify the constructions from my book Higher Franz-Reidemeister Torsion (IP/AMS Studies in Advanced Math 31). Some new basic theorems…

We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model…

We propose a new statistical model that can reproduce the hierarchical nature of the ubiquitous filamentary structures of molecular clouds. This model is based on the multiplicative random cascade, which is designed to replicate the…

One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement…

In this paper, we study term structure movements in the spirit of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Econometrica 60(1), 77-105] under volatility uncertainty. We model the instantaneous forward rate as a diffusion process driven by a G-Brownian…

We consider a short rate model, driven by a stochastic process on the cone of positive semidefinite matrices. We derive sufficient conditions ensuring that the model replicates normal, inverse or humped yield curves.

In this paper we show how to approximate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed form representation of…

We study the multiplicative hazards model with intermittently observed longitudinal covariates and time-varying coefficients. For such models, the existing ad hoc approach, such as the last value carried forward, is biased. We propose a…

By adopting the polynomial interpolation method, we propose an approach to hedge against the interest-rate risk of the default-free bonds by measuring the nonparallel movement of the yield-curve, such as the translation, the rotation and…

We propose a Neural Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with Adaptive Granularity Attention (AGA) for high-frequency order flow modeling. The model addresses the challenge of capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets, where…