Related papers: A general HJM framework for multiple yield curve m…
The martingale expansion provides a refined approximation to the marginal distributions of martingales beyond the normal approximation implied by the martingale central limit theorem. We develop a martingale expansion framework specifically…
The popular generalized additive model framework is extended to allow both the mean curves and the response distribution to be nonparametric. The approach is demonstrated to be a flexible yet parsimonious tool for data analysis in its own…
Let X and Y be an m-dimensional F-semimartingale and an n-dimensional H-semimartingale respectively on the same probability space, both enjoying the strong predictable representation property. We propose a martingale representation result…
We present a scheme for simulating conditioned semimartingales taking values in Riemannian manifolds. Extending the guided bridge proposal approach used for simulating Euclidean bridges, the scheme replaces the drift of the conditioned…
Matrix-valued time series are ubiquitous in modern economics and finance, yet modeling them requires navigating a trade-off between flexibility and parsimony. We propose the Matrix Autoregressive model with Common Factors (MARCF), a unified…
This research attempts to model the stochastic process of trades in a limit order book market as a marked point process. We propose a semi-parametric model for the conditional distribution given the past, attempting to capture the effect of…
We discuss a simple extension of the Ho and Lee model with generic time-dependent drift in which: 1) we compute bond prices analytically; 2) the yield curve is sensible and the asymptotic yield is positive; and 3) our analytical solution…
When interest rate dynamics are described by the Libor Market Model as in BGM97, we show how some essential risk-management results can be obtained from the dual of the calibration program. In particular, if the objetive is to maximize…
To address model uncertainty under flexible loss functions in prediction problems, we propose a model averaging method that accommodates various loss functions, including asymmetric linear and quadratic loss functions, as well as many other…
In fixed income sector, the yield curve is probably the most observed indicator by the market for trading and fifinancing purposes. A yield curve plots interest rates across different contract maturities from short end to as long as 30…
In a financial market model, we consider the variance-optimal semi-static hedging of a given contingent claim, a generalization of the classic variance-optimal hedging. To obtain a tractable formula for the expected squared hedging error…
In this paper, we provide a model-independent extension of the paradigm of dynamic hedging of derivative claims. We relate model-independent replication strategies to local martingales having a closed form which we can characterise via…
In multiscale modelling, multiple models are used simultaneously to describe scale-dependent phenomena in a system of interest. Here we introduce a machine learning (ML)-based multiscale modelling framework for modelling hierarchical…
On a multi-assets Black-Scholes economy, we introduce a class of barrier options. In this model we apply a generalized reflection principle in a context of the finite reflection group acting on a Euclidean space to give a valuation formula…
In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…
Several phenomena are available representing market activity: volumes, number of trades, durations between trades or quotes, volatility - however measured - all share the feature to be represented as positive valued time series. When…
A well-designed framework for risk classification and ratemaking in automobile insurance is key to insurers' profitability and risk management, while also ensuring that policyholders are charged a fair premium according to their risk…
Quasi-Gaussian HJM models are a popular approach for modeling the dynamics of the yield curve. This is due to their low dimensional Markovian representation, which greatly simplifies their numerical implementation. We present a qualitative…
Under inhomogeneous flow, dense suspensions exhibit complex behaviour that violates the conventional homogenous rheology. Specifically, one finds flowing regions with a macroscopic friction coefficient below the yielding criterion, and…
We propose a general modeling framework for marked Poisson processes observed over time or space. The modeling approach exploits the connection of the nonhomogeneous Poisson process intensity with a density function. Nonparametric Dirichlet…