Related papers: The lower tail: Poisson approximation revisited

We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…

We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…

We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…

The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…

The paper suggests a simple method of deriving minimax lower bounds to the accuracy of statistical inference on heavy tails. A well-known result by Hall and Welsh (Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 1079-1084) states that if $\hat{\alpha}_n$ is an…

Let $S$ and $X$ be independent random variables, assuming values in the set of non-negative integers, and suppose further that both $\mathbb{E}(S)$ and $\mathbb{E}(X)$ are integers satisfying $\mathbb{E}(S)\ge \mathbb{E}(X)$. We establish a…

Concentration inequalities for subgraph counts in random geometric graphs built over Poisson point processes are proved. The estimates give upper bounds for the probabilities $\mathbb{P}(N\geq M +r)$ and $\mathbb{P}(N\leq M - r)$ where $M$…

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

As an application of Stein's method for Poisson approximation, we prove rates of convergence for the tail probabilities of two scan statistics that have been suggested for detecting local signals in sequences of independent random variables…

Two new information-theoretic methods are introduced for establishing Poisson approximation inequalities. First, using only elementary information-theoretic techniques it is shown that, when $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ is the sum of the (possibly…

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Although there is an extensive literature on the maxima of Gaussian processes, there are relatively few non-asymptotic bounds on their lower-tail probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop such a bound, while also allowing for many…

We give exponential upper bounds for $P(S \le k)$, in particular $P(S=0)$, where $S$ is a sum of indicator random variables that are positively associated. These bounds allow, in particular, a comparison with the independent case. We give…

We establish upper and lower bounds with matching leading terms for tails of weighted sums of two-sided exponential random variables. This extends Janson's recent results for one-sided exponentials.

Let $\{\xi_n\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. In this paper we study the comparison for two upper tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}a_n|\xi_n|^p\geq r\}$ and…

We consider the problem of finding the optimal upper bound for the tail probability of a sum of $k$ nonnegative, independent and identically distributed random variables with given mean $x$. For $k=1$ the answer is given by Markov's…

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

Upper bounds for the probabilities $\mathbb{P}(F\geq \mathbb{E} F + r)$ and $\mathbb{P}(F\leq \mathbb{E} F - r)$ are proved, where $F$ is a certain component count associated with a random geometric graph built over a Poisson point process…

We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…

We study the accuracy of a scaled Poisson approximation to the weighted sum of independent Poisson random variables, focusing on in particular the relative error of the tail distribution. A bound on the relative approximation error is…