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Model routing chooses which language model to use for each query. By sending easy queries to cheaper models and hard queries to stronger ones, it can significantly reduce inference cost while maintaining high accuracy. However, most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Qi Cao , Shuhao Zhang , Ruizhe Zhou , Ruiyi Zhang , Peijia Qin , Pengtao Xie

The recent explosion in the capabilities of large language models has led to a wave of interest in how best to prompt a model to perform a given task. While it may be tempting to simply choose a prompt based on average performance on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 Thomas P. Zollo , Todd Morrill , Zhun Deng , Jake C. Snell , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

This paper presents entropy maps, an approach to describing and visualising uncertainty among alternative potential movement intentions in pedestrian simulation models. In particular, entropy maps show the instantaneous level of randomness…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2019-09-10 Luca Crociani , Giuseppe Vizzari , Stefania Bandini

Action prediction focuses on anticipating actions before they happen. Recent works leverage probabilistic approaches to describe future uncertainties and sample future actions. However, these methods cannot easily find all alternative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Dan Scarafoni , Irfan Essa , Thomas Ploetz

In this paper we follow our previous research in the area of Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). We present three different methods for CAT. One of them, the item response theory, is a well established method, while the other two, Bayesian…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2017-03-30 Martin Plajner

Topic popularity prediction in social networks has drawn much attention recently. Various elegant models have been proposed for this issue. However, different datasets and evaluation metrics they use lead to low comparability. So far there…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2017-10-17 Yiming Zhang , Jiacheng Luo , Xiaofeng Gao , Guihai Chen

We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-13 Takafumi Kajihara , Motonobu Kanagawa , Keisuke Yamazaki , Kenji Fukumizu

This paper considers an opportunistic scheduling problem over a renewal system. A controller observes a random event at the beginning of each renewal frame and then chooses an action in response to the event, which affects the duration of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-06-10 Xiaohan Wei , Michael J. Neely

In this paper, we propose a model for evaluating the transmission performance of multipath transport. Previous researches focused exclusively on single pair users in simple scenarios. The distinct perspective in this paper is to build…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2013-06-19 Chang Liu , Fei Song , Huan Yan , Sidong Zhang

Comparative Judgement is an assessment method where item ratings are estimated based on rankings of subsets of the items. These rankings are typically pairwise, with ratings taken to be the estimated parameters from fitting a Bradley-Terry…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-22 Ian Hamilton , Nick Tawn

Risk assessment services fulfil the task of generating a risk report from personal information and are developed for purposes like disease prognosis, resource utilization prioritization, and informing clinical interventions. A major…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-03-19 Eryu Xia , Yiqin Yu , Enliang Xu , Jing Mei , Wen Sun

Currently, knowledge discovery in databases is an essential step to identify valid, novel and useful patterns for decision making. There are many real-world scenarios, such as bankruptcy prediction, option pricing or medical diagnosis,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-20 José-Ramón Cano , Pedro Antonio Gutiérrez , Bartosz Krawczyk , Michał Woźniak , Salvador García

This paper studies the evaluation of methods for targeting the allocation of limited resources to a high-risk subpopulation. We consider a randomized controlled trial to measure the difference in efficiency between two targeting methods and…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-04 Eric Potash

This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Steve Hanks , David Madigan , Jonathan Gavrin

The generalization performance of a risk prediction model can be evaluated by its calibration, which measures the agreement between predicted and observed outcomes on external validation data. Here, methods for assessing the calibration of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-31 Moritz Berger , Matthias Schmid

The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the time series forecasting problem based on similarity of trajectories. Various methodologies are introduced and studied, and detailed discussions on hyperparameter optimization, outlier…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-20 İlker Arslan , Can Hakan Dağıdır , Ümit Işlak

Recently significant progress has been made in vehicle prediction and planning algorithms for autonomous driving. However, it remains quite challenging for an autonomous vehicle to plan its trajectory in complex scenarios when it is…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Xiangguo Liu , Ruochen Jiao , Yixuan Wang , Yimin Han , Bowen Zheng , Qi Zhu

The complexity of the operating environment and required technologies for highly automated driving is unprecedented. A different type of threat to safe operation besides the fault-error-failure model by Laprie et al. arises in the form of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Roman Gansch , Ahmad Adee

Regression models are essential for a wide range of real-world applications. However, in practice, target values are not always precisely known; instead, they may be represented as intervals of acceptable values. This challenge has led to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Tung L Nguyen , Toby Dylan Hocking

Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-23 Alexander F. Siegenfeld , Pratyush K. Kollepara , Yaneer Bar-Yam