Related papers: A Dutch Book theorem for partial subjective probab…

The classical propositional assumption-based model is extended to incorporate probabilities for the assumptions. Then it is placed into the framework of evidence theory. Several authors like Laskey, Lehner (1989) and Provan (1990) already…

Two examples of the situation when the classical observables should be described by a noncommutative probability space are investigated. Possible experimental approach to find quantum-like correlations for classical disordered systems is…

Distributional data tells us that a man can swallow candy, but not that a man can swallow a paintball, since this is never attested. However both are physically plausible events. This paper introduces the task of semantic plausibility:…

In the Bayesian approach to probability theory, probability quantifies a degree of belief for a single trial, without any a priori connection to limiting frequencies. In this paper we show that, despite being prescribed by a fundamental…

This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…

This article continues study of the prequential framework for evaluating a probability forecaster. Testing the hypothesis that the sequence of forecasts issued by the forecaster is in agreement with the observed outcomes can be done using…

I argue that, on the subjective Bayesian interpretation of probability, "it from bit" requires a generalization of probability theory. This does not get us all the way to the quantum probability rule because an extra constraint, known as…

The idea of fully accepting statements when the evidence has rendered them probable enough faces a number of difficulties. We leave the interpretation of probability largely open, but attempt to suggest a contextual approach to full belief.…

This paper examines the foundational concept of random variables in probability theory and statistical inference, demonstrating that their mathematical definition requires no reference to randomization or hypothetical repeated sampling. We…

In probabilistic transition systems, behavioural metrics provide a more fine-grained and stable measure of system equivalence than crisp notions of bisimilarity. They correlate strongly to quantitative probabilistic logics, and in fact the…

Individuals have an intuitive perception of what makes a good coincidence. Though the sensitivity to coincidences has often been presented as resulting from an erroneous assessment of probability, it appears to be a genuine competence,…

The main result of this paper is a probabilistic proof of the penalty method for approximating the price of an American put in the Black-Scholes market. The method gives a parametrized family of partial differential equations, and by…

Classical probability theory is formulated using sets. In this paper, we extend classical probability theory with propositional computability logic. Unlike other formalisms, computability logic is built on the notion of events/games, which…

We construct the belief function that quantifies the agent, beliefs about which event of Q will occurred when he knows that the event is selected by a chance set-up and that the probability function associated to the chance set up is only…

In this talk - based on the results of a forthcoming paper (Coletti, Scozzafava and Vantaggi 2002), presented also by one of us at the Conference on "Non Classical Logic, Approximate Reasoning and Soft-Computing" (Anacapri, Italy, 2001) -…

The purpose of this article is to formulate a number of probabilistic hidden-variable theorems, to provide proofs in some cases, and counterexamples to some conjectured relationships. The first theorem is the fundamental one. It asserts the…

The paper aim is the axiomatic justification of the theory of experience and chance, one of the dual halves of which is the Kolmogorov probability theory. The author's main idea was the natural inclusion of Kolmogorov's axiomatics of…

Natural language semantics has recently sought to combine the complementary strengths of formal and distributional approaches to meaning. More specifically, proposals have been put forward to augment formal semantic machinery with…

In traditional semantics for classical logic and its extensions, such as modal logic, propositions are interpreted as subsets of a set, as in discrete duality, or as clopen sets of a Stone space, as in topological duality. A point in such a…

This book introduces to the theory of probabilities from the beginning. Assuming that the reader possesses the normal mathematical level acquired at the end of the secondary school, we aim to equip him with a solid basis in probability…