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First-principles statistical mechanics enables the prediction of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of materials, but is computationally expensive. Many approaches require surrogate models to calculate energies within Monte Carlo or…
Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
This article focuses on inference in logistic regression for high-dimensional binary outcomes. A popular approach induces dependence across the outcomes by including latent factors in the linear predictor. Bayesian approaches are useful for…
Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…
Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex and large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural…
In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…
We focus on improving the accuracy of an approximate model of a multiscale dynamical system that uses a set of parameter-dependent terms to account for the effects of unresolved or neglected dynamics on resolved scales. We start by…
We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…
Statistical multispecies models of multiarea marine ecosystems use a variety of data sources to estimate parameters using composite or weighted likelihood functions with associated weighting issues and questions on how to obtain variance…
The Bell regression model (BRM) is a statistical model that is often used in the analysis of count data that exhibits overdispersion. In this study, we propose a Bayesian analysis of the BRM and offer a new perspective on its application.…
We design a novel, nonlinear single-source-of-error model for analysis of multiple business cycles. The model's specification is intended to capture key empirical characteristics of business cycle data by allowing for simultaneous cycles of…
In this paper we propose to make Bayesian inferences for the parameters of the Lomax distribution using non-informative priors, namely the Jeffreys prior and the reference prior. We assess Bayesian estimation through a Monte Carlo study…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
In many inverse problems such as 3D X-ray Computed Tomography (CT), the estimation of an unknown quantity, such as a volume or an image, can be greatly enhanced, compared to maximum-likelihood techniques, by incorporating a prior model on…
Pre-validation is a way to build prediction model with two datasets of significantly different feature dimensions. Previous work showed that the asymptotic distribution of the resulting test statistic for the pre-validated predictor…
Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…
A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…