Related papers: Upper Tail Estimates with Combinatorial Proofs

We study random design linear regression with no assumptions on the distribution of the covariates and with a heavy-tailed response variable. In this distribution-free regression setting, we show that boundedness of the conditional second…

In this work we investigate a class of random walks that interacts with its environment called Tree Builder Random Walk (TBRW). In our settings, at each step, the walker adds a random number of vertices to its position sampled according to…

In this paper, we study dependence uncertainty and the resulting effects on tail risk measures, which play a fundamental role in modern risk management. We introduce the notion of a regular dependence measure, defined on multi-marginal…

The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…

This work studies the tail exponents for the height function of the stationary stochastic six vertex model in the moderate deviations regime. For the upper tail of the height function we find upper and lower bounds of matching order, with a…

We show an extension of Sanov's theorem on large deviations, controlling the tail probabilities of i.i.d. random variables with matching concentration and anti-concentration bounds. This result has a general scope, applies to samples of any…

We consider a random walk in an i.i.d. Cauchy-tailed conductances environment. We obtain a quenched functional CLT for the suitably rescaled random walk, and, as a key step in the arguments, we improve the local limit theorem for…

We derive exponential bounds for tail of distribution for natural, i.e. under ordinary logarithm, normalized sums of arrays of random variables, not necessarily independent.

This note gives a proof of an improved upper bound for the right-side tail of a distribution discussed in "Crossover Distributions at the Edge of the Rarefaction Fan" by Ivan Corwin and Jeremy Quastel.

Exponential tail bounds for sums play an important role in statistics, but the example of the $t$-statistic shows that the exponential tail decay may be lost when population parameters need to be estimated from the data. However, it turns…

We obtain explicit bounds on the truncation error of the cumulant series of a bounded complex function of a random vector with independent components. The bounds are based on multidimensional differences. This extends the theory of the…

We study a one-dimensional random walk among random conductances, with unbounded jumps. Assuming the ergodicity of the collection of conductances and a few other technical conditions (uniform ellipticity and polynomial bounds on the tails…

For a $\Delta$-regular connected graph ${\sf H}$ the problem of determining the upper tail large deviation for the number of copies of ${\sf H}$ in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$, an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graph on $n$ vertices with edge probability $p$,…

We study moderate deviations in the exponential corner growth model, both in the bulk setting and the increment-stationary setting. The main results are sharp right-tail bounds on the last-passage time and the exit point of the…

Let $M_n= \fsu X1n$ be a sum of independent random variables such that $ X_k\leq 1$, $\E X_k =0$ and $\E X_k^2=\s_k^2$ for all $k$. Hoeffding 1963, Theorem 3, proved that $$\P{M_n \geq nt}\leq H^n(t,p),\quad H(t,p)= \bgl(1+qt/p\bgr)^{p +qt}…

In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…

Under the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup $\{U_t\}$, any non-negative measurable $f : \mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R_+$ exhibits a uniform tail bound better than that implied by Markov's inequality and conservation of mass: For every $\alpha \geq…

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Let $G=(V,E)$ be a finite, connected graph. We investigate a notion of boundary $\partial G \subseteq V$ and argue that it is well behaved from the point of view of potential theory. This is done by proving a number of discrete analogous of…

We study the bias of random bounded-degree polynomials over odd prime fields and show that, with probability exponentially close to 1, such polynomials have exponentially small bias. This also yields an exponential tail bound on the weight…