Related papers: Evaluating gambles using dynamics
A reformulation of the Kelly Criterion is presented. Let $\mathfrak{G}$ be a generic stochastic Bernoulli binary game with outcomes $\mathscr{Z}(I)\in\lbrace -1,1\rbrace$ of N trials for $I=1...N$. The binomial probabilities are…
We consider a sequence of repeated interactions between an agent and an environment. Uncertainty about the environment is captured by a probability distribution over a space of hypotheses, which includes all computable functions. Given a…
This paper builds a rule for decisionmaking from the physical behavior of single neurons, the well established neural circuitry of mutual inhibition, and the evolutionary principle of natural selection. No axioms are used in the derivation…
We consider the robust utility maximization using a static holding in derivatives and a dynamic holding in the stock. There is no fixed model for the price of the stock but we consider a set of probability measures (models) which are not…
We consider a simplified version of the Wealth Game, which is an agent-based financial market model with many interesting features resembling the real stock market. Market makers are not present in the game so that the majority traders are…
We introduce a simple stochastic dynamics for game theory. It assumes ``local'' rationality in the sense that any player climbs the gradient of his utility function in the presence of a stochastic force which represents deviation from…
We start by reviewing recent probabilistic results on ergodic sums in a large class of (non-uniformly) hyperbolic dynamical systems. Namely, we describe the central limit theorem, the almost-sure convergence to the gaussian and other stable…
When individuals interact in groups, the evolution of cooperation is traditionally modeled using the framework of public goods games. These models often assume that the return of the public good depends linearly on the fraction of…
We are witnessing an increasing use of data-driven predictive models to inform decisions. As decisions have implications for individuals and society, there is increasing pressure on decision makers to be transparent about their decision…
Sports organizations often want to estimate athlete strengths. For games with scored outcomes, a common approach is to assume observed game scores follow a normal distribution conditional on athletes' latent abilities, which may change over…
Under the assumptions that (i) gamification consists of various types of users that experience game design elements differently; and (ii) gamification is deployed in order to achieve some goal in the broadest sense, we pose the gamification…
Quantum Decision Theory, advanced earlier by the authors, and illustrated for lotteries with gains, is generalized to the games containing lotteries with gains as well as losses. The mathematical structure of the approach is based on the…
We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of microeconomic…
A gambler walks into a hypothetical fair casino with a very real dollar bill, but by the time he leaves he's exchanged the dollar for a random amount of money. What is lost in the process? It may be that the gambler walks out at the end of…
In reinforcement learning, we typically aim to optimize the expected value of the sum of rewards an agent collects over a trajectory. However, if the process generating these rewards is non-ergodic, the expected value, i.e., the average…
Typically, merit is defined with respect to some intrinsic measure of worth. We instead consider a setting where an individual's worth is \emph{relative}: when a Decision Maker (DM) selects a set of individuals from a population to maximise…
We suggest employing log-ergodic processes to simulate the velocity of money in an ergodic manner. Our approach sheds light on economic behavior, policy implications, and financial dynamics by maintaining long-term stability. By bridging…
Understanding how biological organisms make decisions is of fundamental importance in understanding behavior. Such an understanding within evolutionary game theory so far has been sought by appealing to bounded rationality. Here, we present…
We consider the problem of maximising expected utility from terminal wealth in a semimartingale setting, where the semimartingale is written as a sum of a time-changed Brownian motion and a finite variation process. To solve this problem,…
The results in this paper add useful tools to the theory of sets of desirable gambles, a growing toolbox for reasoning with partial probability assessments. We investigate how to combine a number of marginal coherent sets of desirable…