Related papers: Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihoo…

In this paper, we prove that finite state space non parametric hidden Markov models are identifiable as soon as the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and the emission probability distributions are linearly…

Suppose we observe a geometrically ergodic semi-Markov process and have a parametric model for the transition distribution of the embedded Markov chain, for the conditional distribution of the inter-arrival times, or for both. The first two…

Consider a parametrized family of general hidden Markov models, where both the observed and unobserved components take values in a complete separable metric space. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter is…

Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…

A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…

We study mixture of linear regression (random coefficient) models, which capture population heterogeneity by allowing the regression coefficients to follow an unknown distribution $G^*$. In contrast to common parametric methods that fix the…

In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

This paper outlines a new nonparametric estimation procedure for unobserved phi-mixing processes. It is assumed that the only information on the stationary hidden states (Xk) is given by the process (Yk), where Yk is a noisy observation of…

Let $(Y_k)_{k\in \mathbb{Z}}$ be a stationary sequence on a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},\mathbb{P})$ taking values in a standard Borel space $\mathsf{Y}$. Consider the associated maximum likelihood estimator with respect to a…

This paper considers hidden Markov models where the observations are given as the sum of a latent state which lies in a general state space and some independent noise with unknown distribution. It is shown that these fully nonparametric…

We consider hidden Markov models indexed by a binary tree where the hidden state space is a general metric space. We study the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters based only on the observed variables. In both…

We consider parameter estimation in finite hidden state space Markov models with time-dependent inhomogeneous noise, where the inhomogeneity vanishes sufficiently fast. Based on the concept of asymptotic mean stationary processes we prove…

In this paper we consider non parametric finite translation mixtures. We prove that all the parameters of the model are identifiable as soon as the matrix that defines the joint distribution of two consecutive latent variables is non…

We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…

The existence and consistency of a maximum likelihood estimator for the joint probability distribution of random parameters in discrete-time abstract parabolic systems are established by taking a nonparametric approach in the context of a…

In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…

We consider the problem of estimating the number of hidden states (the order) of a nonparametric hidden Markov model (HMM). We propose two different methods and prove their almost sure consistency without any prior assumption, be it on the…

Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods,…

In this paper we develop a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of the mixing distribution of the parameters of a linear stochastic dynamical system. This includes, for example, pharmacokinetic population models with process and…