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Related papers: Detecting relevant changes in time series models

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We develop a mixture procedure to monitor parallel streams of data for a change-point that affects only a subset of them, without assuming a spatial structure relating the data streams to one another. Observations are assumed initially to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-10 Yao Xie , David Siegmund

A change point detection (CPD) framework assisted by a predictive machine learning model called "Predict and Compare" is introduced and characterised in relation to other state-of-the-art online CPD routines which it outperforms in terms of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Anna-Christina Glock , Florian Sobieczky , Johannes Fürnkranz , Peter Filzmoser , Martin Jech

In this paper, we study the quickest change detection with mismatched post-change models. A change point is the time instant at which the distribution of a random process changes. The objective of quickest change detection is to minimize…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-27 Jingxian Wu , Jing Yang

The task of monitoring for a change in the mean of a sequence of Bernoulli random variables has been widely studied. However most existing approaches make at least one of the following assumptions, which may be violated in many real-world…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-08 Gordon J. Ross , Dimitris K. Tasoulis , Niall M. Adams

In this paper we study the setting where features are added or change interpretation over time, which has applications in multiple domains such as retail, manufacturing, finance. In particular, we propose an approach to provably determine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-02 Amit Dhurandhar , Steve Hanneke , Liu Yang

Expectile regression is a useful tool for exploring the relation between the response and the explanatory variables beyond the conditional mean. This article develops a continuous threshold expectile regression for modeling data in which…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-09 Feipeng Zhang , Qunhua Li

While Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) remains a widely used statistical tool, it suffers from several shortcomings in its common usage, such as conflating statistical and practical significance, the formulation of inappropriate…

We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-26 Monika Bhattacharjee , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

We extend the use of Classification Without Labels for anomaly detection with a hypothesis test designed to exclude the background-only hypothesis. By testing for statistical independence of the two discriminating dataset regions, we are…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-03-16 Jernej F. Kamenik , Manuel Szewc

Change point detection in time series aims to identify moments when the probability distribution of time series changes. It is widely applied in many areas, such as human activity sensing and medical science. In the context of multivariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Shanyun Gao , Raghavendra Addanki , Tong Yu , Ryan A. Rossi , Murat Kocaoglu

We consider together the retrospective and the sequential change-point detection in a general class of integer-valued time series. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter $\theta^*$ which may change over time. We propose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-29 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

This paper considers the problem of testing whether there exists a solution satisfying certain non-negativity constraints to a linear system of equations. Importantly and in contrast to some prior work, we allow all parameters in the system…

Recently Batsidis \textit{et al.} (2011) have presented a new procedure based on divergence measures for testing the hypothesis of the existence of a change point in exponential populations. A simulation study was carried out, in this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-07-18 Apostolos Batsidis , Nirian Martín , Leandro Pardo , Konstantinos Zografos

Rejecting the null hypothesis in two-sample testing is a fundamental tool for scientific discovery. Yet, aside from concluding that two samples do not come from the same probability distribution, it is often of interest to characterize how…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-08 Boris Landa , Rihao Qu , Joseph Chang , Yuval Kluger

Practical problems with missing data are common, and statistical methods have been developed concerning the validity and/or efficiency of statistical procedures. On a central focus, there have been longstanding interests on the mechanism…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-26 Rui Duan , C. Jason Liang , Pamela Shaw , Cheng Yong Tang , Yong Chen

In this paper, we study the offline change point localization problem in a sequence of dependent nonparametric random dot product graphs. To be specific, assume that at every time point, a network is generated from a nonparametric random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-16 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu , Carey E. Priebe

This paper investigates change point inference in high-dimensional time series. We begin by introducing a max-$L_2$-norm based test procedure, which demonstrates strong performance under dense alternatives. We then establish the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Xiaoyi Wang , Jixuan Liu , Long Feng

The problem of sequentially detecting an abrupt change in a sequence of independent and identically distributed (IID) random variables is addressed. Whereas previous approaches assume a known probability density function (PDF) at the start…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-11 James Falt , Steven D. Blostein

Time-series anomaly detection deals with the problem of detecting anomalous timesteps by learning normality from the sequence of observations. However, the concept of normality evolves over time, leading to a "new normal problem", where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Dongmin Kim , Sunghyun Park , Jaegul Choo

A new bivariate partial sum process for locally stationary time series is introduced and its weak convergence to a Brownian sheet is established. This construction enables the development of a novel self-normalized CUSUM test statistic for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-15 Florian Heinrichs