Related papers: Detecting relevant changes in time series models
In designed experiments and surveys, known laws or design feat ures provide checks on the most relevant aspects of a model and identify the target parameters. In contrast, in most observational studies in the health and social sciences, the…
Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…
Hypothesis testing results often rely on simple, yet important assumptions about the behaviour of the distribution of p-values under the null and the alternative. We examine tests for one dimensional parameters of interest that converge to…
Sequential (online) change-point detection involves continuously monitoring time-series data and triggering an alarm when shifts in the data distribution are detected. We propose an algorithm for real-time identification of alterations in…
For a bivariate time series $((X_i,Y_i))_{i=1,...,n}$ we want to detect whether the correlation between $X_i$ and $Y_i$ stays constant for all $i = 1,...,n$. We propose a nonparametric change-point test statistic based on Kendall's tau and…
We investigate the power of some common change-point tests as a function of the location of the change-point. The test statistics are maxima of weighted U-statistics, with the CUSUM test and the Wilcoxon change-point test as special…
This paper introduces a new method for testing the statistical significance of estimated parameters in predictive regressions. The approach features a new family of test statistics that are robust to the degree of persistence of the…
Hypothesis testing in singular statistical models is often regarded as inherently problematic due to non-identifiability and degeneracy of the Fisher information. We show that the fundamental obstruction to testing in such models is not…
In this paper we consider a regression model that allows for time series covariates as well as heteroscedasticity with a regression function that is modelled nonparametrically. We assume that the regression function changes at some unknown…
We propose a framework for determining whether the causal dependence of an outcome $Y$ on a covariate $X$ changes at a given time point, given confounders $\boldsymbol{Z}$. For instance, in financial markets, the effect of a market…
The problem of quickest detection of a change in the distribution of a sequence of independent observations is considered. The pre-change observations are assumed to be stationary with a known distribution, while the post-change…
Structural changes and outliers often coexist, complicating statistical inference. This paper addresses the problem of testing for parameter changes in conditionally heteroscedastic time series models, particularly in the presence of…
Traditional methods for inference in change point detection often rely on a large number of observed data points and can be inaccurate in non-asymptotic settings. With the rise of mobile health and digital phenotyping studies, where…
We present a generative model for representing and reasoning about the relationships among events in continuous time. We apply the model to the domain of networked and distributed computing environments where we fit the parameters of the…
We consider the problem of detecting distributional changes in a sequence of high dimensional data. Our approach combines two separate statistics stemming from $L_p$ norms whose behavior is similar under $H_0$ but potentially different…
We develop monitoring procedures for cointegrating regressions, testing the null of no breaks against the alternatives that there is either a change in the slope, or a change to non-cointegration. After observing the regression for a…
There exist a number of tests for assessing the nonparametric heteroscedastic location-scale assumption. Here we consider a goodness-of-fit test for the more general hypothesis of the validity of this model under a parametric functional…
There is a wide literature on change point tests, but the case of variables with infinite variances is essentially unexplored. In this paper we address this problem by studying the asymptotic behavior of trimmed CUSUM statistics. We show…
We investigate the power of the CUSUM test and the Wilcoxon change-point test for a shift in the mean of a process with long-range dependent noise. We derive analytiv formulas for the power of these tests under local alternatives. These…
The issue addressed in this paper is that of testing for common breaks across or within equations of a multivariate system. Our framework is very general and allows integrated regressors and trends as well as stationary regressors. The null…